基于Joinpoint回归模型的2001-2024年浙江省血吸虫病螺情和病情趋势分析

Trend analysis of snail status and schistosomiasis morbidity in Zhejiang province from 2001 to 2024 based on Joinpoint regression model

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2001-2024年浙江省血吸虫病螺情和病情变化,为完善该省血吸虫病消除维持阶段的防控策略提供科学依据。
    方法 收集2001-2024年浙江省血吸虫病年报数据,采用Joinpoint回归模型对血吸虫病的螺情和病情趋势变化进行分析,以平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)、年度百分比(APC)评价两者的时间序列趋势变化。
    结果  2001-2024年浙江省共计查螺面积149823.29万平方米,查到钉螺面积1453.86万平方米。Joinpoint回归分析提示2001-2024年查出钉螺面积总体呈明显下降趋势(AAPC=−3.58%, P=0<0.05),在2007年和2014年有 2个趋势连接点,其中2007-2014年下降明显,年均下降率为11.36%;每年查出钉螺面积占查螺面积比例呈明显下降趋势年均下降率为3.93%;实有钉螺面积呈明显下降趋势,年均下降率为1.50%,其中山丘型实有钉螺面积年均下降1.92%,而水网型地区则有上升,且其有螺面积占实有钉螺面积比例在2018年出现1个拐点,呈先降后升特点,2018-2024年年均上升63.41%。2001-2024全省人群血吸虫病血清学检测阳性率呈明显下降趋势,年均下降10.47%,期间全省共查到输入性粪检阳性病例249例,年均下降率为6.76%,在2005年有一个拐点,呈先升后降趋势,2005-2024年年下降率为19.84%。
    结论  2001-2024年浙江省持续巩固血吸虫病消除成果,有螺面积大幅下降,但残存钉螺和输入性病例等风险仍然存在,今后仍须进一步加强螺情和输入性传染源的监测和防控力度,持续巩固消除成果。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the changing trends in snail status and schistosomiasis prevalence in Zhejiang Province from 2001 to 2024, and provide a scientific basis for improving prevention and control strategies during thd post-elimination maintenance phase.
    Methods Annual schistosomiasis surveillance data from Zhejiang Province (2001–2024) were collected, and Joinpoint regression models were used to analyze temporal trends in snail distribution and human infection. The annual average percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change (APC) were calculated to assess temporal trends.
    Results From 2001 to 2024, the total snail survey area in Zhejiang Province was 1,498.2329 million m2, and the snail found area was 14.5386 million m2. Joinpoint regression analysis indicated a significant overall decline in the snail found area (AAPC=−3.58%, P<0.05), with two joinpoints identified in 2007 and 2014, specifically demonstrating an 11.36% annual average decline during the sub-period of 2007-2014. Concurrently, the proportion of snail found areas within surveyed regions declined annually by 3.93%. The total snail area decreased at an annual average rate of 1.50%, among which the snail area in hilly regions showed a more pronounced decline of 1.92% per year, while that in marshland areas increased. Notably, the proportion of marshland snail areas within the total snail area exhibited one joinpoint in 2018, shifting from an annual average decline to a steep annual increase of 63.41% from 2018 to 2024. The seropositivity rate for schistosomiasis in the province declined at an annual average rate of 10.47% from 2001 to 2024. During the same period, a total of 249 imported fecal-positive cases were reported, with cases decreasing at an annual average rate of 6.76%, and a joinpoint was identified in 2005 characterized by an initial increase followed by a decrease; from 2005 to 2024, the annual average decline was 19.84%.
    Conclusion Schistosomiasis elimination achievements in Zhejiang Province were consolidated from 2001 to 2024, with substantial reductions in snail areas. However, risks persist due to residual snails and imported cases. Therefore, further efforts are needed to strengthen surveillance and control of snail habitats and imported sources of infection to sustain the elimination achievement.

     

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