2014-2024年宁夏布鲁氏菌病流行特征及空间聚集性分析

Epidemic characteristics and spatial clustering analysis of brucellosis in Ningxia Hui Autonomous regionm, 2014−2024

  • 摘要:
    目的  对2014-2024年宁夏布鲁氏菌病流行特征及空间聚集性情况进行分析,识别高危区域,为今后宁夏布病防控策略的制定及调整提供科学依据。
    方法  采用描述流行病学分析方法对2014-2024年宁夏布病疫情进行分析,使用Excel 16.0及SPSS 20.0软件对数据进行整理分析,通过ArcGIS 10.8进行趋势面分析及空间自相关分析。
    结果  2014-2024年宁夏布病年均发病率为43.75/10万;发病率整体呈上升趋势。发病高峰集中在3-8月;22个县区均有布病病例报告;男性报告发病率为60.72/10万,女性报告发病率为26.08/10万;发病年龄主要集中在40-65年龄组,占病例总数的64.48%。职业分布以农民为主。空间三维趋势图显示布病在宁夏中部和东部地区发病情况较为严重。空间自相关分析结果显示除2017年及2020年外,其余年份宁夏布病发病均呈空间正相关(Moran's I>0,P<0.05)。布病“高−高”聚集区较为固定,主要出现在以盐池、同心为中心的中部地区,“低−低”聚集区主要集中在北部地区。
    结论  近年宁夏布病发病率整体呈上升趋势,发病季节特征及职业分布特征明显,热点区域集中在以盐池、同心为主的畜牧养殖业高速发展区。应加强疫情监测,聚焦空间聚集区,强化传染源的管理;同时在高危人群中开展针对性防护干预,降低职业暴露风险,从源头遏制疫情扩散。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyse the epidemiological characteristics and spatial clustering of brucellosis in Ningxia from 2014 to 2024, identify high-risk areas, and provide scientific basis for formulating and adjusting future brucellosis control strategies in Ningxia.
    Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the brucellosis epidemic in Ningxia from 2014 to 2024. Data were processed using Excel 16.0 and SPSS 20.0 software. Trend surface analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis were performed with ArcGIS 10.8.
    Results From 2014 to 2024, the average annual incidence rate of brucellosis in Ningxia was 43.75 per 100000, showing an overall upward trend. The peak incidence occurred between March and August. Cases were reported in all 22 counties/districts. The reported incidence rate was 60.72 per 100000 in males and 26.08 per 100000 in females. The majority of cases (64.48%) were in the 40–65 age group, and most cases were farmers. The three-dimensional spatial trend map indicated more severe incidence in central and eastern Ningxia. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed positive spatial correlation in most years (Moran's I>0, P<0.05), except in 2017 and 2020. High-high clustering areas were consistently observed in central-eastern regions centered on Yanchi and Tongxin, while low-low clustering areas were mainly in northern Ningxia.
    Conclusion In recent years, the incidence of brucellosis in Ningxia has shown an overall upward trend, with distinct seasonal patterns and occupational distribution characteristics. Hotspots are concentrated in areas of rapid livestock farming development, primarily around Yanchi and Tongxin. Enhance epidemic surveillance, focus on spatial clusters, and strengthen the management of infection sources. At the same time, implement targeted protective interventions among high-risk populations to reduce occupational exposure risks and contain the spread of the epidemic at its source.

     

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