2015—2024年安徽省新报告50岁及以上HIV/AIDS病例时空聚集性分析

Spatiotemporal characteristics of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases aged 50 years and above in Anhui Province, from 2015 to 2024

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2015—2024年安徽省新报告50岁及以上人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)感染者/获得性免疫缺陷综合征(AIDS)患者的时空分布特征,为安徽省艾滋病防治工作提供参考依据。
    方法 数据来源于全民健康保障信息化工程中国疾病预防控制信息系统,下载2015—2024年安徽省50岁及以上HIV/AIDS病例资料。使用GeoDa和SaTScan软件进行空间自相关分析和时空扫描分析。
    结果 2015—2024年安徽省报告50岁及以上HIV/AIDS共9396例,新报告感染率呈逐年增加趋势(趋势χ2=493.84,P<0.001),男女性别比为3.43∶1,样本来源以医疗机构检测为主,传播途径以异性传播为主。空间分布总体呈现为北部较高、南部较低的态势。空间自相关分析结果提示,安徽省各年报告50岁及以上HIV/AIDS病例分布均呈现空间正相关(Moran's I指数均>0,均P<0.05)。2021年之前,高-高聚集区主要分布在包含安徽省阜阳市和亳州市部分县区在内的安徽省北部地区。2022年之后,高-高聚集区向中南部扩散。SaTScan时空扫描共探测到6个聚集区域,主要聚集区位于安徽省阜阳市和亳州市,覆盖利辛县、颍东区、蒙城县、颍泉区、颍州区、涡阳县、太和县和颍上县,聚集时间为2020—2024年。
    结论 2015—2024年安徽省新报告50岁及以上HIV/AIDS疫情存在空间聚集性特征,并有向中南部扩散态势,提示应加强重点区域防控工作。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To investigate the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases aged 50 years and above in Anhui Province from 2015 to 2024, and to provide reference for the AIDS prevention and control measures.
    Methods The data of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases aged 50 years and above in Anhui from 2015 to 2024 were collected through the National Health and Disease Control Information System. The GeoDa and SaTScan software were used for spatial and temporal autocorrelation analysis and spatiotemporal clustering analysis.
    Results During 2015—2024, a total of 9396 HIV/AIDS cases aged 50 years and above were reported, and the newly reported infection rate showed an increasing trend (χ2=493.84, P<0.001), 77.44% of them were male, the main sources of samples were medical institutions, main route of infection was heterosexual transmission. The incidence was higher in northern area and lower in southern area. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed significant spatial clustering for the newly reported HIV/AIDS cases aged 50 years and above in all years (Moran's I>0, P<0.05). The "high-high" clustering area was mainly concentrated in some counties and districts of FuYang and BoZhou city before 2021, and shifted over time from the northern region to the central-southern region since 2022. Spatiotemporal scanning detected six clustering areas, and the primary cluster mainly covered 8 counties (districts) in FuYang and BoZhou city from 2020 to 2024.
    Conclusion The prevalence of HIV/AIDS cases aged 50 years and above from 2015 to 2024 showed spatial clustering and shifted over time, suggesting that prevention and control measures should be strengthened in key areas.

     

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