基于新型随机森林和logistic回归模型的2016-2024年湖北省吸毒者梅毒感染相关因素分析

Analysis of the related factors of syphilis infection among drug users based on the new random forest and logistic regression models in Hubei province, 2016−2024

  • 摘要:
    目的  了解湖北省吸毒者人群梅毒感染状况及其相关因素,为该人群梅毒防控措施提供参考依据。
    方法  2016—2024年在湖北省9个主要市州均设置哨点。通过连续的横断面调查,进行匿名问卷调查和血样采集,以收集调查对象的社会人口学、性行为和血清学信息。运用过采样技术(SMOTE)模型处理类别分布不平衡,使用新型随机森林模型(rfPermute)和logistic回归模型分析梅毒感染的相关因素。
    结果  2016—2024年共调查吸毒者36970人,梅毒抗体阳性率为2.03%~3.26%,历年间无线性变化趋势(P>0.05);HIV和HCV抗体阳性率分别为0.02%~0.38%和20.27%~26.48%,历年间均呈线性下降趋势(均P<0.05)。2024年调查对象艾滋病知识知晓率为93.16%,最近一年接受过干预服务的比例为88.24%,既往检测过HIV的比例为66.48%,上述指标在2016—2024年呈线性上升趋势(均P<0.05);注射吸毒的比例为26.80%,近一年有吸毒后性行为的比例为32.91%,上述指标在2016—2024年呈线性下降趋势(均P<0.05)。两种模型分析结果显示,文化程度、毒品类型、最近一年接受过干预服务、HCV检测结果、性别是梅毒感染的共同相关因素(新型随机森林特征变量重要性排前十位且Logistic回归均P<0.05);年龄和婚姻在随机森林中重要性很高,但在Logistic回归中不显著。
    结论 2016—2024年湖北省吸毒者人群梅毒抗体阳性率总体呈低流行水平。文化程度低、女性、吸食传统毒品或混合毒品者更易感染梅毒,建议加强这些特征人群的宣传教育和精准干预,完善多维度防控策略。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To understand the syphilis infection status and related factors among drug users in Hubei Province, and to provide a reference basis for syphilis prevention and control measures in this population.
    Methods  Sentinel sites were set up in 9 major cities and prefectures of Hubei Province from 2016 to 2024. Anonymous questionnaires and blood samples were collected through continuous cross-sectional surveys to gather sociodemographic, sexual behavior, and serological information of the respondents. The Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) model was used to handle the imbalance in category distribution, and the new random forest model (rfPermute) and logistic regression model were employed to analyze the related factors of syphilis infection.
    Results  A total of 36,970 drug users were surveyed from 2016 to 2024. The positive rate of syphilis antibodies ranged from 2.03% to 3.26%, with no linear trend over the years (P > 0.05). The positive rates of HIV and HCV antibodies were 0.02% to 0.38% and 20.27% to 26.48%, respectively, showing a linear downward trend over the years (all P < 0.05). In 2024, the awareness rate of AIDS knowledge among the respondents was 93.16%, the proportion who had received intervention services in the past year was 88.24%, and the proportion who had been tested for HIV in the past was 66.48%. These indicators showed a linear upward trend from 2016 to 2024 (all P < 0.05). The proportion of injecting drug users was 26.80%, and the proportion who had sexual behavior after drug use in the past year was 32.91%. These indicators showed a linear downward trend from 2016 to 2024 (all P < 0.05). The results of the two models showed that educational level, type of drug used, having received intervention services in the past year, HCV test results, and gender were common related factors for syphilis infection (the top ten feature variable importance in the new random forest and all P < 0.05 in logistic regression). Age and marital status were highly important in the random forest, but not significant in logistic regression.
    Conclusion The positive rate of syphilis antibodies among drug users in Hubei Province from 2016 to 2024 was generally at a low prevalence level. Those with low educational attainment, females, and users of traditional or mixed drugs were more likely to be infected with syphilis. It is recommended to strengthen publicity and education and precise intervention for these characteristic groups, and to improve multi-dimensional prevention and control strategies.

     

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