1990-2021年中国与全球胃炎和十二指肠炎疾病负担的时空演变及驱动因素分析

Spatiotemporal trends and driving factors of the disease burden of gastritis and duodenitis in China and globally, 1990–2021

  • 摘要:
    目的 系统评估1990-2021年中国与全球胃炎和十二指肠炎(GD)疾病负担的时空演变规律及其驱动因素,为优化全球公共卫生策略提供证据。
    方法 基于全球疾病负担(GBD)2021数据,计算中国与全球GD的年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)、年龄标准化伤残损失寿命年率(ASDR)及年龄标准化死亡率(ASMR),采用年均变化百分比预估值(EAPC)分析趋势变化,结合社会人口指数(SDI)前沿分析和Das Gupta分解法,量化人口增长、老龄化及流行病学变化的贡献。
    结果 全球GD疾病负担呈下降趋势,ASIR、ASDR、ASMR的EAPC分别为−0.42%(95%CI:−0.47%~−0.37%)、−1.30%(95%CI:−1.35%~−1.24%)和−1.91%(95%CI:−1.98%~−1.84%),但区域异质性显著:高SDI国家(如德国、英国)实际伤残调整生命年数(DALYs)率高于预测值,而部分低收入国家(如卢旺达)通过政策干预实现“超预期”改善。 中国GD负担下降速度显著快于全球,ASIR(EAPC=−1.29%)、ASDR(−2.44%)和ASMR(−2.83%)年均降幅分别为全球的3.10倍、1.90倍和1.50倍(均P<0.05)。 性别分层显示,中国男性ASIR降幅(−1.52%)高于女性(−1.09%),但女性死亡率改善更显著(女性EAPC=−3.22%,男性EAPC=−2.42%);全球范围内女性ASIR始终高于男性(2021年:367.92/10万 vs. 277.33/10万)。 年龄分布上,全球与中国均呈现疾病负担向老年人群偏移,全球各年龄组GD粗发病率、DALYs率及死亡率均呈下降趋势,但中老年群体疾病负担始终最为突出。中国发病率峰值从1990年的55~<75岁年龄组后移至2021年的75~<95岁年龄组,≥95岁组DALYs率下降62.10%。 分解分析表明,全球发病增加9 889 002例主要归因于人口增长(81.10%)和老龄化(64.15%),但流行病学干预(如幽门螺杆菌根除)抵消45.26%;中国通过强化预防措施,使流行病学变化贡献度达−119.75%,减少人口和老龄化压力。
    结论 中国在控制GD疾病负担方面取得了显著成效,但人口老龄化加剧导致疾病负担向高龄人群偏移。 全球范围内,高SDI国家需提升医疗资源利用效率,低SDI国家需增强卫生系统的韧性,同时应将老年人群和性别差异纳入核心管理策略。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To systematically assess the spatio-temporal trends and driving factors of gastritis and duodenitis (GD) burden in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, providing evidence for optimizing global public health strategies.
    Methods Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we calculated age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR), and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for GD in China and globally. Trends were evaluated using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and contributions from population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes were quantified through socio-demographic index (SDI) frontier analysis and Das Gupta decomposition.
    Results  Globally, GD burden declined, with EAPCs of −0.42% (95%CI: −0.47% to −0.37%) for ASIR, −1.30% (95%CI: −1.35% to −1.24%) for ASDR, and −1.91% (95%CI: −1.98% to −1.84%) for ASMR. However, significant regional heterogeneity was observed: high-SDI countries (e.g., Germany, the UK) exhibited higher observed DALYs rates than predicted, while some low-income countries (e.g., Rwanda) exceeded expectations in improvement through policy interventions. China demonstrated significantly faster declines than the global average, with EAPCs for ASIR (−1.29%), ASDR (−2.44%), and ASMR (−2.83%) being 3.10, 1.90, and 1.50 times greater, respectively (all P<0.05). Gender stratification revealed that Chinese males experienced faster ASIR reductions (−1.52%) than females (−1.09%), yet females achieved greater mortality declines (females: EAPC = –3.22%, males: EAPC = –2.42%). Globally, female ASIR remained higher than male ASIR (367.92/100,000 vs. 277.33/100,000 in 2021). Age-specific analysis indicated a shift in disease burden toward older populations globally and in China. Crude incidence rates, DALYs rates, and mortality rates of GD declined across all age groups worldwide, yet the disease burden remained most pronounced among middle-aged and elderly populations. In China, the incidence peak shifted from the 55–<75 age group in 1990 to the 75–<95 age group in 2021, with a 62.10% reduction in DALYs rate among those aged ≥95 years. Decomposition analysis showed that global incident cases increased by 9 889 002, primarily driven by population growth (81.10%) and aging (64.15%), but offset by epidemiological improvements (e.g., Helicobacter pylori eradication, −45.26%). China has effectively mitigated the burden of population growth and aging by implementing robust preventive measures, achieving a contribution rate of -119.75% from epidemiological changes. Conclusion China has achieved remarkable success in controlling the disease burden of GD. However, the intensifying aging population has led to a shift in disease burden towards older age groups. Globally, high-SDI countries need to improve the efficiency of healthcare resource utilization, while low-SDI countries need to strengthen the resilience of their health systems. Moreover, incorporating age-specific and gender-differentiated strategies into core management approaches is essential.

     

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