2015-2023年四川省新报告≥50岁异性商业性传播HIV/AIDS患者流行特征及时空聚集性分析

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of reported HIV/AIDS cases aged ≥50 years and infected by commercial heterosex in Sichuan, 2015 - 2023

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析四川省≥50岁经异性商业性传播的艾滋病病毒感染者/艾滋病患者(HIV/AIDS患者)的流行特征及时空分布特征,为艾滋病防控政策制定提供依据。
    方法 数据来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统,选取2015-2023年报告年龄≥50岁、高危行为接触史为异性商业性行为的患者,应用SPSS 22.0软件进行描述性分析,应用ArcGIS 10.7软件进行空间自相关分析,采用SaTScan v9.5软件选用Poisson分布模型进行时空聚集性分析。
    结果 四川省报告经异性商业性传播HIV/AIDS患者中≥50岁的比例从2015年的51.27%上升至2023年的78.13%(χ趋势2=1757.993P<0.001)。历年报告≥50岁异性商业性传播HIV/AIDS患者以男性(95.35%)、汉族(98.68%)、农民(75.99%)、小学文化(57.29%)、医疗机构检测发现(68.91%)、首次CD4+T细胞计数<350个/μL(61.69%)为主。区县级时空扫描分析发现7个聚集区,主要分布在川南四市、成都与周边市州毗邻地区、川东北与重庆市接壤地区。
    结论 中老年经异性商业性传播是四川省艾滋病防控重点人群,患者分布存在时空聚集性,应进一步加强时空聚集地区≥50岁人群的艾滋病病毒(HIV)检测力度,开展综合性干预措施,控制传染源和降低传播风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyse the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of reported HIV/AIDS cases aged ≥50 years and infected by commercial heterosex in Sichuan province, and provide evidence for the development of AIDS prevention and control policies.
    Methods Data were sourced from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, the reported HIV/AIDS cases aged ≥50 years and infected by commercial heterosex from 2015 to 2023 were selected. Descriptive analysis was conducted by using software SPSS 22.0, spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed by using software ArcGIS 10.7, and spatiotemporal clustering analysis was conducted by using Poisson distribution model in software SaTScan v9.5.
    Results The proportion of HIV/AIDS patients aged ≥50 years and infected by commercial heterosex increased from 51.27% in 2015 to 78.13% in 2023 in Sichuan (Xtrend2=1757.99, P<0.001). In the annual reported HIV/AIDS cases aged ≥50 years and infected by commercial heterosex in Sichuan, men accounted for 95.3%, those in Han ethnic group accounted for 98.7% ,farmers accounted for 76.0%, those with education level of primary school accounted for 57.3%, those detected by medical institution accounted for68.9% and those with the first CD4 T+ cell count <350 cells/μL accounted for 61.6%. Spatiotemporal scanning at district and county level identified seven clustering areas, mainly distributed in the four areas of southern Sichuan, Chengdu and surrounding areas, and the areas bordering Chongqing in northeastern Sichuan.
    Conclusion People aged ≥50 years is a key population for AIDS prevention and control in Sichuan, and the distribution of HIV/AIDS cases shows spatiotemporal clustering, so it is necessary to strengthen HIV testing in local people aged ≥50 years, and conduct comprehensive interventions to control the source of infection and reduce the risk for transmission.

     

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