2006-2024年云南省人间布鲁氏菌病流行特征及时空聚集性分析

Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatiotemporal Clustering Patterns of Human Brucellosis in Yunnan Province, 2006-2024

  • 摘要:
    目的  解析2006-2024年云南省人间布鲁氏菌病(布病)的空间聚集性特征,为制定精准的布病防控策略提供科学参考。
    方法 从中国疾病预防控制中心传染病信息报告系统下载2006-2024年人间布病的发病率、发病数和病例的人群、时间和职业分布等流行病学数据,并汇总2010年至2024年云南省人间布病的血清学监测数据。采用描述性流行病学方法和ArcGIS10.8软件进行流行特征和时空聚集性分析。
    结果 2006-2024年云南省共报告人间布病病例7360例,报告病例数从2006年1例增加到2024年2124例,报告病例的县数从2006年的1个县(区)扩展到2024年的101县(区);血清阳性率从2010年的0.94%波动增加到2023年的4.60%,表明人间布病疫情持续恶化,影响地域逐年扩展。报告病例数在月份(χ2=66.03, P<0.05)、性别(χ2=1116.03, P<0.05)、年龄组(χ2=5742.26, P<0.05)及职业组中(χ2=75515.43, P<0.05)差异有统计学意义。7月报告病例最多,流行以夏秋季为主,流行高峰晚于北方地区,可能与当地气候及养殖业模式有关。男性病例多于女性,男女比例为2.28:1;职业以农民为主,年龄主要分布在30-70岁,并有逐步老年化的趋势。这与老年群体从事养殖业较多,且防病意识较差相关。全局空间自相关分析结果显示,2009-2024年人间布病流行存在显著的正空间自相关,整体上存在空间聚集性(均有 P<0.05);局部空间自相关分析显示高值聚集区由2009年的2个县(区)增加至 2024年的11个县(区),高值聚集区主要集中在滇中及滇东南养殖业聚集地区。
    结论 云南省人间布病疫情呈逐年增长态势,发病呈明显的职业性和季节性特征,中老年男性农民为重点防控人群,滇中及滇东南地区为重点防控区域。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective Analysis of the spatiotemporal clustering characteristics of human brucellosis in Yunnan Province from 2006 to 2024, to provide scientific references for formulating targeted prevention and control strategies.
    Methods Download epidemiological data on the incidence rate, case numbers, and demographic, temporal, and occupational distributions of human brucellosis cases from 2006 to 2024 via the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting Information System. Additionally, aggregate serological surveillance data for human brucellosis in Yunnan Province from 2010 to 2024. Descriptive epidemiological methods and ArcGIS 10.8 software were employed to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering patterns.
    Results From 2006 to 2024, Yunnan Province reported a cumulative total of 7,360 human brucellosis cases. The annual case count exhibited a marked escalation, rising from a single confirmed case in 2006 to 2,124 cases in 2024. Concurrently, the number of affected counties/districts expanded from 1 to 101 during the same period. Serological surveillance data revealed a fluctuating yet significant upward trend in seropositivity rates, increasing from 0.94% (2010) to 4.60% (2023). These findings demonstrate both a sustained intensification of the epidemic and progressive geographic dissemination across the province. The number of reported cases varied significantly by month (χ2=66.03, P<0.05), sex (χ2=1116.03, P<0.05), age group (χ2=5742.26, P<0.05), and occupation (χ2=75515.43, P<0.05). The highest number of cases was reported in July, with the epidemic predominantly occurring in summer and autumn. The peak incidence occurred later than in northern regions, possibly due to local climate conditions and livestock farming practices. male-to-female ratio was 2.28:1. Most cases were farmers, with the highest proportion aged 30–70 years, showing a gradual aging trend, which may be associated with older individuals' greater involvement in animal husbandry and weaker disease prevention awareness. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed significant positive spatial autocorrelation in human brucellosis prevalence from 2009 to 2024, indicating overall spatiotemporal clustering (P<0.05). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the number of "high-high" clustering areas increased from 2 counties (districts) in 2009 to 11 in 2024, primarily concentrated in central and southeastern Yunnan.
    Conclusion The brucellosis epidemic in Yunnan Province continues to worsen, exhibiting distinct occupational and seasonal characteristics. Middle-aged and elderly male farmers constitute the key population for targeted prevention and control, while central and southeastern Yunnan represent the priority regions for intervention efforts.

     

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