1990—2021年中国及分省脑和中枢神经系统肿瘤疾病负担研究

Disease burden of brain and central nervous system cancer in China and its provinces, 1990–2021

  • 摘要:
    目的 掌握中国及分省脑和中枢神经系统肿瘤(脑瘤)的发病、死亡及疾病负担现状及其变化趋势,为更全面了解中国情况及制定针对性防控措施提供依据。
    方法 利用全球疾病负担研究(GBD2021)数据,提取出1990—2021年中国脑瘤的发病、死亡及伤残调整寿命年(DALY)数据。应用Joinpoint软件中的对数线性回归模型计算年度平均变化百分比(AAPC),描述脑瘤疾病负担的变化趋势。采用死亡数变化分解法,分析年龄别死亡率、人口老龄化及人口增长对脑瘤死亡数变化的贡献程度。
    结果  2021年,中国脑瘤发病率为7.42/10万95%不确定性区间(UI):5.72/10万~9.39/10万,死亡率为4.84/10万(95%UI:3.66/10万~6.20 /10万),DALY率为157.98/10万(95%UI:120.60/10万~202.48 /10万)。较1990年,2021年脑瘤发病数、死亡和DALY 数均呈显著增长;年龄标化发病率呈上升趋势,年龄标化死亡和标化DALY率均有所下降。分年龄组结果显示,发病、死亡和DALY在5~<10岁呈现第一个高峰,发病率为3.50/10万(95%UI:2.64/10万~4.72 /10万),死亡率为1.33/10万(95%UI:0.98/10万~1.82 /10万);在10~<20岁处于较低水平;随着年龄增长,发病和死亡均呈增长趋势,到≥75岁组达到最高,发病率为23.93/10万(95%UI:16.73/10万~29.67 /10万),死亡率为21.23/10万(95%UI:14.98/10万~26.41 /10万)。1990—2021年5岁以下儿童发病、死亡和DALY率均呈现下降趋势,5岁以上人群的脑瘤发病率呈上升趋势,20~<35岁和70岁及以上人群死亡率呈上升趋势(均P<0.001)。2021年中国不同省份的疾病负担存在显著差异,天津市、辽宁省以及黑龙江省的DALY相对较高。1990—2021年,全国死亡数共增长75.97%,其中,人口老龄化原因占比64.36%,人口增长原因占20.93%,年龄别死亡率原因占比−9.33%。
    结论  既往30年,我国脑瘤死亡略有降低,但发病水平不断增高,应关注儿童和老年等重点人群,并探索适宜人群的筛查及早诊早治干预策略,降低疾病负担。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the overall and province specific incidence, mortality, and disease burden of brain and central nervous system cancer (brain cancer) in China from 1990 to 2021.
    Methods Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2021) were used to analyze the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of brain cancer in China from 1990 to 2021. A log-linear regression model in software Joinpoint was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to describe the trends in brain cancer disease burden. Additionally, the change in mortality was decomposed to analyze the contributions of age-specific mortality, population aging, and population growth.
    Results In 2021, the incidence rate of brain cancer in China was 7.42/100000 95% uncertainty interval (UI): 5.72~939, the mortality rate was 4.84/100 000 (95% UI: 3.66~6.20), and the DALY rate was 157.98/100 000 (95% UI: 120.60/~202.48). Compared with 1990, the incidence, mortality and DALYs of brain cancer in 2021 showed significant increases. The age-standardized incidence rate showed an increasing trend, while the age-standardized mortality rate and the age-standardized DALY rate decreased .The results by age group showed that incidence, mortality and DALY showed the first peaks at 5-<10 years of age, with an incidence rate of 3.50/100 000 (95% UI: 2.64-4.72) and a mortality rate of 1.33/100 000 (95% UI: 0.98-1.82), but they were at lower levels at the age of 10-<20 years. Both the incidence rate and mortality rate showed increasing trends with age, reaching 23.93/100 000 (95% UI: 16.73-29.67) and 21.23/100 000 (95% UI: 14.98-26.41) in age group ≥75 years. The incidence rate, mortality rate, and DALY rate in children under age of 5 years showed decreasing trends from 1990 to 2021, but the incidence rate in people over the age of 5 years showed an increasing trend, and the mortality rates in people aged 20-<35 years and ≥70 years showed increasing trends (all P <0.001). There were significant differences in the burden of disease of brain cancer among different provinces in China in 2021, with relatively high DALYs in Tianjin, Liaoning, and Heilongjiang. The overall brain cancer deaths increased by 75.97% in China from 1990 to 2021, with population ageing contributing to 64.36%, population growth contributing to 20.93% and age-specific mortality contributing to −9.33%.
    Conclusion Over the past 30 years, the brain cancer mortality showed a slight decrease in China, but the incidence rate increased steadily. It is necessary to focus the population at high risk, such as children and the elderly, and explore appropriate screening and early intervention strategies to reduce the disease burden level.

     

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