2015-2024年西藏自治区艾滋病流行趋势及晚发现状况

Epidemiological characteristics and late detection of HIV/AIDS in Xizang, 2015-2024

  • 摘要:
    目的 了解西藏自治区2015−2024年艾滋病疫情的流行趋势及晚发现状况,为西藏自治区定制有针对性的防控策略提供科学依据。
    方法 通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2015−2024年期间现住址为西藏自治区新报告的 艾滋病病毒/艾滋病(HIV/AIDS)病例资料,将HIV确诊后半年内首次CD4细胞计数<350个/µL、出现艾滋病定义性事件或未做过CD4检测但确诊后半年内死亡的患者定义为晚发现病例。单因素分析采用χ2 检验,多因素分析采用logistic回归分析,Joinpoint回归模型对晚发现比例的时间趋势进行分析。
    结果 2015-2024年西藏自治区共报告HIV/AIDS病例1414例,其中晚发现病例556例,晚发现比例为39.32%。HIV/AIDS 病例男女性别比1.55∶1,25−50岁(75.46%),农牧民(31.26%),已婚有配偶(52.40%),藏族(73.06%),大专及以上(26.66%),医疗疗机构检测(64.85%),异性传播(89.25%),常住人口(67.89%),西藏户籍(75.46%),有性病史(9.83%),拉萨市(48.51%),年报告病例数从2015年的89例增加至2024年的275例,Joinpoint 回归分析显示报告病例数整体呈上升趋势(AAPC=12.04%,P<0.05)。单因素分析结果显示不同性别、年龄、职业、民族、传播途径、户籍和市(地)的晚发现比例差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),多因素logistic回归分析结果显示年龄≥25岁(25-50岁, OR=1.831,95%CI:1.285-2.609;>50岁, OR=2.049, 95%CI: 1.240-3.386)的HIV/AIDS病例晚发现风险较高。
    结论 2015−2024年西藏自治区艾滋病整体呈低流行上升趋势,晚发现比例39.32%,年龄是影响西藏自治区HIV/AIDS病例晚发现的重要因素。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics and late detection of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic in the Xizang from 2015 to 2024, and provide evidence for the development of targeted prevention and control strategies.
    Methods Data of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases in Xizang between 2015 and 2024 were collected through China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The cases with the first recorded CD4 cell count < 350 cells/μL within six months after HIV diagnosis or being detected in an AIDS-defining event or died within six months of HIV diagnosis without prior CD4 cell count testing were defined as late-detected cases. Univariate analysis was performed by using χ2 test, multivariate analysis was conducted by using logistic regression model, and Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trend of the late-detection proportion.
    Results From 2015 to 2024, a total of 1,414 HIV/AIDS cases were reported in the Xizang, in which 556 (39.32%) were classified as late detected cases. The demographic and epidemiological characteristics of the cases indicated that the male to female ratio was 1.55:1, 75.46% were aged 25–50 years,31.26% were farmers/herdsmen, 52.40% were married,73.06% were Tibetan, 26.66% had college degree or higher, 64.85% were detected by medical institutions, 89.25% were infected by heterosexual transmission, 67.89% were permanent residents, 75.46% had Tibetan household registration, 9.83% had history of sexually transmitted infection and 48.51% were reported in Lhasa. Annual reported case count increased from 89 in 2015 to 275 in 2024. Joinpoint regression analysis confirmed an overall upward trend with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of 12.04% (P<0.05). Univariate analysis indicated that the gender, age, occupation, ethnicity, transmision route, household registration and area specific differences in late-detection of HIV/AIDS cases were significant (P<0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis revealed significantly higher risk for late detection of HIV/AIDS in people aged ≥25 years (age 25–50 years: OR=1.831, 95% CI: 1.285–2.609, age >50 years: OR=2.049, 95% CI: 1.240–3.386).
    Conclusion The prevalence of HIV/AIDS in Xizang remained at low level but showed a persistent upward trend during 2015–2024, with a late-detection rate of 39.32%. Age ≥25 years was a significant independent risk factor for the late diagnosis.

     

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