Objective To analyze the changing trends of the morbidity rate, mortality rate and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of lung cancer in residents in Jing 'an district, Shanghai, from 2002 to 2021, and evaluate the influence of age, period and birth cohort effects on the disease burden of lung cancer based on the analysis with age-period-cohort model, and provide scientific evidence for local prevention and control of lung cancer.

Methods Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC), and the effects of age, period and cohort effects on the morbidity, mortality and DALYs rate of lung cancer were evaluated based on the analysis with age-period-cohort model.

Results From 2002 to 2021, the morbidity rate and standardized morbidity rate of lung cancer in Jing 'an increased significantly with AAPCs of 4.75% and 2.89% respectively (P<0.001). The growth rate in women was higher than that in men. The mortality rate increased slightly, but the standardized mortality rate showed a downward trend (AAPC=−1.54%, P<0.001). The DALYs rate increased slightly (AAPC=1.00%, P=0.002), while the standardized DALYs rate decreased significantly (AAPC=−1.63%, P<0.001). The analysis with age-period-cohort model showed that the differences in age, period and cohort effects on the incidence trend of lung cancer were significant. The morbidity and mortality rates in age group over 60 years old increased rapidly, while the incidence risk increased but the death risk decreased in the later cohort.

Conclusion During 2002−2021, the incidence of lung cancer kept increase in Jing 'an, especially in women. The mortality rate tended to be stable, and the standardized mortality rate decreased, indicating that achievements have been made in local lung cancer prevention and control and population aging is one of the main factors influencing the incidence of lung cancer. In the future, it is necessary to strengthen the early screening of cancer in populations at high risk to further reduce the threats posed by lung cancer to people’s health.