2016-2024年北京市房山区肠道门诊病例流行病学特征及病原体检出情况分析

Analysis on epidemiological and etiological characteristics of intestinal infection cases in outpatients in Fangshan district, Beijing, 2016 - 2024

  • 摘要:
    目的  分析2016-2024年北京市房山区各医疗机构肠道门诊病例的流行病学特征,明确房山区腹泻病例病原谱构成,为腹泻防控提供依据。
    方法 通过北京市肠道门诊早期监测预警网获得病例个案信息,通过病原体监测工作获得病毒及细菌的检测结果,使用圆形分布、空间自相关、多元自回归移动平均模型模型等方法对其进行分析。
    结果 2016-2024年北京市房山区肠道门诊病例年平均发病率为384.30/10万,2016-2019年发病率呈现波动下降趋势,2020-2024年基本保持在较低水平。呈现夏季高峰,7-8月达到高峰,2016-2018年12月有次高峰。圆形分布分析显示近9年高峰日为7月12日,高峰期为4月12日至10月13日。男女性别比为1.16∶1。年龄为0~101岁,中位数为34岁。病例数最多的年龄组为30~<35岁、25~<30岁及0~<5岁。各乡镇街道的病例数和发病率均大体呈现下降趋势。城关街道的病例数及发病率均居各乡镇街道的第一位。除2016年以外,其余各年份均呈现空间正相关。诺如病毒GII型检出率最高(11.63%),细菌性病原体中弯曲菌检出率最高(9.00%)。引入病原监测作为外生变量后,模型的拟合效果较自回归移动平均模型有所提升。
    结论 房山区近年肠道门诊病例数量总体保持在较低水平。7-8月是发病高峰,夏季是腹泻病防控工作的关键节点。25~<35岁和5岁以下人群是腹泻病防控的重点人群。应对发病数或发病率较高的乡镇街道采取措施,降低腹泻病的疾病负担。诺如病毒是房山区散发腹泻病例的主要病原体,需重点对其进行监测和控制。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To understand the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of intestinal infection cases in outpatients in Fangshan district of Beijing from 2016 to 2024, and provide evidence for the prevention and control of diarrhea.
    Methods The case information was obtained through the Early Warning and Surveillance Network for Intestinal Infection in Beijing. Viral and bacterial pathogen detection results were obtained through etiological surveillance. Analyses were conducted by methods such as circular distribution, spatial autocorrelation and multivariate auto regressive moving average model analyses.
    Results The average annual incidence rate of intestinal infection was 384.30/100 000 in Fangshan from 2016 to 2024. The incidence rate showed a fluctuating downward trend from 2016 to 2019 and remained at relatively low level from 2020 to 2024. The annual incidence peak during summer from July to August and sub-peak in December were observed from 2016 to 2018. The circular distribution analysis revealed that the incidence was high from April 12 to October 13, with the peak on July 12. The male-to-female ratio of the cases was 1.16∶1. The age of the cases ranged from 0 year to 101 years, with a median age of 34 years. The case count was highest in age group 30−<35 years, followed by age groups 25−<30 years and 0−<5 years. The case counts and incidence rates showed downward trends in all the townships and streets. Chengguan street had the highest case count and incidence rate. Except 2016, the positive spatial correlations in case count and incidence rate were observed in all the years. Norovirus GII had the highest detection rate (11.63%). In the bacterial pathogen detection, Campylobacter had the highest detection rate (9.00%). After including pathogen surveillance as an exogenous variable, the fitting of auto regressive moving average model model was improved.
    Conclusion The detection of intestinal infection in Fangshan remained at a relatively low level in recent years. The annual incidence peaked during July - August, indicating that summer is a critical period for diarrhea prevention and control. Population aged 25−<35 years and <5 years are at higher risk for diarrhea. Measures should be taken in areas with higher case counts or incidence rates to reduce the disease burden of diarrhea. Norovirus is the main pathogen causing sporadic diarrhea cases, suggesting that strengthened surveillance and control efforts are needed.

     

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