2025年7月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in July 2025

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2025年7月中国境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2025年7月监测到18种传染病在全球36个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。对我国的输入风险方面,高风险事件4个,中风险事件22个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件12个,中风险事件30个。
    结论 建议重点关注孟加拉国、越南的登革热疫情,美国的霍乱疫情,法国的基孔肯雅热疫情可能带来的输入风险。海外旅行风险方面,建议出国旅行者重点关注哥斯达黎加、墨西哥、孟加拉国、越南的登革热疫情,刚果民主共和国、莫桑比克、南苏丹、尼日利亚、苏丹的霍乱疫情,法国、法属留尼旺岛的基孔肯雅热疫情,巴西的奥罗普切热疫情以及印度的尼帕病毒病疫情。相较6月,7月还需一般关注美国的肺鼠疫、俄罗斯的发热伴血小板减少综合征、印度的尼帕病毒病可能带来的感染风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objectives To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside mainland China in July 2025 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the Internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In July 2025, 18 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 36 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 4 high-risk events and 22 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 12 high-risk events and 30 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion It is recommended to focus on the potential import risks posed by dengue fever outbreaks in Bangladesh and Vietnam, cholera outbreaks in the United States, and chikungunya fever outbreaks in France. Regarding overseas travel risks, it is advised that travelers abroad pay close attention to dengue fever outbreaks in Costa Rica, Mexico, Bangladesh and Vietnam, cholera outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, South Sudan, Nigeria, Sudan, and France, chikungunya fever outbreaks in French Réunion Island, Oropouche fever in Brazil, and Nipah virus disease in India. Compared to June, in July, general attention should also be paid to the potential infection risks posed by pneumonic plague in the United States, febrile thrombocytopenia syndrome in Russia and Nipah virus disease in India.

     

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