2016－2024年浙江省金华市恶性肿瘤死亡特征及趋势预测

王小红; 周凡; 陈梦倩; 张小兰; 徐则林

doi:10.3784/jbjc.202508240550

2016－2024年浙江省金华市恶性肿瘤死亡特征及趋势预测

Characteristics and trend prediction of malignant tumor death in Jinhua, Zhejiang, 2016–2024

摘要

摘要:
目的分析浙江省金华市户籍居民恶性肿瘤的死亡水平，预测恶性肿瘤的发展趋势，为金华市恶性肿瘤防治提供科学依据。
方法收集2016－2024年金华市恶性肿瘤死亡监测数据，统计分析恶性肿瘤死亡率、标化死亡率、潜在减寿年数（PYLL）、平均减寿年数（AYLL）、潜在减寿率（PYLLR）、死因顺位等流行病学特征和变化趋势，并预测2025－2027年金华市恶性肿瘤死亡变化趋势。
结果 2016－2024年金华市共监测恶性肿瘤死亡病例79 696例，平均粗死亡率180.28/10万，标化死亡率110.00/10万，粗死亡率相对稳定，标化死亡率呈下降趋势［平均年度变化百分比 (AAPC)=−3.33%，P<0.001］。其中，男性粗死亡率235.87/10万，标化死亡率139.59/10万，女性粗死亡率123.33/10万，标化死亡率77.50/10万，男性高于女性（χ²=7 777.410，P<0.001）。男女性标化死亡率均呈下降趋势（AAPC=−3.34%、−3.20%，P<0.001）。男性PYLL和PYLLR均高于女性，但女性的AYLL高于男性。标化死亡率前10位的恶性肿瘤中，肺癌（AAPC=−4.23%，P<0.001）、肝癌（AAPC=−5.33%，P<0.001）、胃癌（AAPC=−5.89%，P<0.001）、食管癌（AAPC=−8.16%，P<0.001）和宫颈癌（AAPC=−2.49%，P=0.036）的标化死亡率呈下降趋势，且食管癌的下降幅度最大。预测2025－2027年金华市恶性肿瘤总体标化死亡率仍呈下降趋势（AAPC=−3.26%，P<0.001）。
结论 2016－2024年金华市恶性肿瘤标化死亡率呈下降趋势，但疾病负担仍然较高，应针对重点恶性肿瘤加强综合防控工作。

Abstract:
Objective To analyze the mortality level of malignant tumors among residents with Jinhua household registration, predict the development trend of malignant tumors, and provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of malignant tumors in Jinhua, Zhejiang province.
Methods The mortality surveillance data of malignant tumors in Jinhua from 2016 to 2024 were collected. The epidemiological characteristics and changing trends of crude mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, potential years of life lost (PYLL), average years of life lost (AYLL), PYLL rate (PYLLR), and cause-of-death ranking were statistically analyzed. The changing trend of malignant tumor mortality in Jinhua from 2025 to 2027 was predicted.
Results From 2016 to 2024, the crude mortality rate of malignant tumors in Jinhua was 180.28/100 000, and the standardized mortality rate was 110.00/100 000. The crude mortality rate was relatively stable, while the standardized mortality rate showed a downward trend average annual percentage change (AAPC)=−3.33%, P<0.001. Among them, the crude mortality rate for men was 235.87/100 000, and the standardized mortality rate was 139.59/100 000. The crude mortality rate for women was 123.33/100 000, and the standardized mortality rate was 77.50/100 000. The standardized mortality rate for men was higher than that for women (χ²=7777.410, P<0.001). The standardized mortality rates for both men and women showed a downward trend (AAPC=−3.34% , −3.20%, P<0.001). The PYLL and PYLLR for men were higher than those for women, but the AYLL for women was higher than that for men. Among the top 10 malignant tumors with the highest standardized mortality rates, the standardized mortality rates of lung cancer (AAPC=−4.23%, P<0.001), liver cancer (AAPC=−5.33%, P<0.001), gastric cancer (AAPC=−5.89%, P<0.001), esophageal cancer (AAPC=−8.16%, P<0.001), and cervical cancer (AAPC=−2.49%, P=0.036) showed a downward trend, with esophageal cancer having the largest decline. It is predicted that the overall standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors in Jinhua will continue to decline from 2025 to 2027 (AAPC=−3.26%, P<0.001).
Conclusion The standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors in Jinhua from 2016 to 2024 showed a downward trend, but the disease burden remained high. Comprehensive prevention and control efforts should be strengthened for key malignant tumors.

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