2025年8月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in August 2025

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2025年8月中国境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2025年8月监测到14种传染病在全球41个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。 对我国的输入风险方面,高风险事件6个,中风险事件25个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件8个,中风险事件25个。
    结论 建议重点关注法国和越南的登革热疫情,韩国和日本的发热伴血小板减少综合征疫情,新加坡和法国的基孔肯雅热疫情可能带来的输入风险。 海外旅行风险方面,建议出国旅行者重点关注索马里的白喉疫情,伊朗和越南的登革热疫情,韩国和日本的发热伴血小板减少综合征疫情,哥伦比亚的黄热病疫情,南苏丹的霍乱疫情,新加坡的基孔肯雅热疫情。 相较7月,8月还需一般关注尼泊尔、萨摩亚、基里巴斯、危地马拉的登革热疫情,埃塞俄比亚和尼泊尔的霍乱疫情,罗马尼亚、西班牙、希腊、塞尔维亚和法国的西尼罗病毒病,刚果民主共和国和中非共和国的脊髓灰质炎可能带来的感染风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in August 2025 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the Internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In August 2025, 14 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 41 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 6 high-risk events and 25 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 8 high-risk events and 25 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion It is recommended to focus on the potential import risks posed by the dengue fever in France and Vietnam, the Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome (SFTS) in South Korea and Japan, and the chikungunya fever in Singapore and France. Regarding overseas travel risks, it is advised that travelers abroad pay close attention to diphtheria in Somalia, the dengue fever in Iran and Vietnam, the SFTS in South Korea and Japan, the yellow fever in Colombia, the cholera in South Sudan, and the chikungunya fever in Singapore. Compared to July, in August, general attention should also be paid to the potential infection risks posed by dengue fever in Nepal, Samoa, Kiribati, and Guatemala; the cholera outbreaks in Ethiopia and Nepal; the West Nile virus disease in Romania, Spain, Greece, Serbia, and France; and the polio in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Central African Republic.

     

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