2026年8月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in August 2026

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2026年8月境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2026年8月监测到16种传染病在全球56个国家或地区形成突发事件或暴发疫情。对我国的输入风险方面,高风险事件2个,中风险事件21个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件3个,中风险事件22个。
    结论 输入风险方面,建议重点关注马来西亚、越南的登革热疫情,一般关注意大利、美国、西班牙、法国的西尼罗病毒病疫情,西班牙、法国、尼加拉瓜、巴西的基孔肯雅热疫情,美国的东部马脑炎疫情,斯里兰卡、洪都拉斯、中国香港、墨西哥、美国、孟加拉国、秘鲁、法国、厄瓜多尔、哥伦比亚、巴西、菲律宾的登革热疫情。海外旅行风险方面,建议重点关注刚果民主共和国的霍乱疫情,孟加拉国、菲律宾的登革热疫情,一般关注印度的金迪普拉病毒感染疫情,西班牙、法国、尼加拉瓜、巴西的基孔肯雅热疫情,缅甸、喀麦隆、尼日利亚、乍得的霍乱疫情,斯里兰卡、洪都拉斯、中国香港、墨西哥、美国、秘鲁、法国、马来西亚、厄瓜多尔、哥伦比亚、巴西、越南的登革热疫情,哥伦比亚的黄热病疫情。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in August 2026 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In August 2026, 16 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 56 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 2 high-risk events and 21 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 3 high-risk events and 22 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion For import risk, it is recommended to pay close attention to the dengue fever outbreak in Malaysia and Vietnam, and pay general attention to West Nile virus disease, chikungunya, the eastern equine encephalitis, and dengue fever in specific countries. For overseas travel risk, it is recommended to pay close attention to cholera in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and dengue in Bangladesh and the Philippines, and pay general attention to Chandipura virus infection, chikungunya, cholera, dengue fever and yellow fever in specific countries.

     

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