2025年9月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, September 2025

  • 摘要:
    目的 评估2025年9月在我国(不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
    方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请各省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。
    结果 2025年9月突发公共卫生事件数可能比8月有所增加,以传染病类事件为主。基孔肯雅热境外输入风险和已有疫情地区溢出风险持续存在,Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ类地区存在输入续发本地传播风险。 登革热境外输入及跨地区传播风险呈上升趋势,本地病例将增多,Ⅰ类省份及湖南、江西等Ⅱ类省份发生聚集性疫情的风险较高,可能出现局部暴发疫情。 预计9月仍会出现霍乱散发病例。 预计短期内我国猴痘Ⅱb亚分支疫情仍将在重点人群中处于低水平传播态势,猴痘Ⅰb亚分支疫情持续存在输入风险及续发传播风险。 新型冠状病毒感染疫情将继续呈现下降或波动下降趋势。
    结论 对基孔肯雅热、登革热、霍乱、新型冠状病毒感染、猴痘等予以关注。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan region, the same below) in September 2025.
    Methods  Based on the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and surveillance results of key infectious diseases or notifications from relative agencies and departments, the expert consultation conference was hold and experts from provincial (autonomous region and municipal) centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.
    Results  It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in September 2025 would be higher than that in August 2025. The main public health emergencies would be infectious diseases. The risk of imported chikungunya cases from abroad and the spillover risk from existing epidemic areas will persist, with the risk of imported cases leading to local secondary transmission in Class Ⅰ, Ⅱ, and Ⅲ areas. The risk of imported dengue fever cases and cross-regional spread is on the rise, and local cases will increase. Class I provinces and some Class Ⅱ provinces such as Hunan and Jiangxi face a higher risk of cluster outbreaks, with the possibility of localized outbreaks. Sporadic cases of cholera are still expected in September. In the short term, the mpox outbreak caused by the sublineage Ⅱb in China is expected to remain at a low-level transmission among key populations, and there is a continuing risk of importation and secondary transmission of the mpox sublineage Ib epidemic. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic will continue to show a downward or fluctuating downward trend.
    Conclusion  Attention should be paid to chikungunya fever, dengue fever, cholera, COVID-19, mpox.

     

/

返回文章
返回