2024年中国人间布鲁氏菌病时空分布特征

Spatiotemporal distribution of human brucellosis in China, 2024

  • 摘要:
    目的 旨在系统解析2024年中国人间布鲁氏菌病(布病)的时空聚集特征并评估人间发病率与人畜间感染水平的相关性,为布病的精准防控提供决策证据。
    方法 整合2024年中国国家法定疾病报告系统的人间布病报告数据及人畜间血清学监测数据。运用描述性流行病学方法刻画其时间、空间及人群(年龄、性别、职业)分布特征,采用空间统计学方法进行空间聚集分析探测疫情聚集区域,并通过Spearman秩相关检验评估人间发病率与人畜间感染水平的相关性。
    结果  2024年中国报告布病病例数为62 055例,发病率为4.41/10万,病例数较2023年下降11.90% (8 384/70 439)。2024年中国报告布病病例具有明显的性别、年龄、职业和季节性特征,50~<55和55~<60岁年龄组、男性、农民居多,春夏季多发。89.73%(55 682/62 055)的报告病例分布在北方地区,10.27%(6 373/62 055)的报告病例分布在南方地区,发病率超过2.0/10万的县域数为1 195个。全局时空分析显示,2024年中中国布病发病存在空间正相关性 (莫兰 指数=0.236, P ≤ 0.05,),局部自相关分析显示,“高-高”聚集区分布在东北、华北和西北地区。2024年中国96个人间布病监测点的血清阳性率为3.96%(2 172/54 851),确诊新发病例6 237例;畜间牛、羊监测血清阳性率分别为0.24%(5 127/2 151 173)和0.59%(4 866/828 790)。
    结论 2024年中国人间布病具有明显的年龄、季节和区域特征。鉴于人畜间监测血清阳性率的高度异质性,建议推动防控资源向动物源头倾斜,强化以畜间监测与净化为基础的源头控制。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To understand the spatiotemporal distribution of human brucellosis in China in 2024, analyze the correlation between its incidence and infection level in both human and animals, and provide evidence for targeted prevention and control of human brucellosis.
    Methods The incidence data of human brucellosis from China National Notifiable Disease Reporting System and serological surveillance data in both human and animals in 2024 were used for the descriptive epidemiological analysis on the time, space, and population (age, gender and occupation) distributions of human brucellosis. Spatial statistical methods, including spatial clustering analysis, were used to detect epidemic hotspot areas. Spearman's rank correlation test was conducted to evaluate the correlation between human incidence and infection levels in both human and animals.
    Results In 2024, a total of 62 055 cases of human brucellosis were reported, with an incidence rate of 4.41/100 000, the cases decreased by 11.90% compared with 2023 (8 384/70 439). The incidence of the disease exhibited distinct gender, age and occupation specific characteristics, with the most cases being men, individuals in age groups 50~ years and 55~ years and farmers. A marked seasonal distribution was observed, the incidence peaked in spring and summer. Geographically, 89.73% of the cases (55 682/62 055) were reported in northern China, while 10.27% of the cases (6 373/62 055) were reported in southern China. Additionally, there were 1 195 counties with the incidence rate exceeding 2.0/100 000. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed a positive spatial correlation in national brucellosis incidence (Moran's I = 0.236, P ≤ 0.05). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis identified distinct "high-high" clusters in northeastern, northern and northwestern China. The seroprevalence was 3.96% in 96 human surveillance areas in China in 2024 (2 172/54 851), with 6 237 newly confirmed cases. The seroprevalence in livestock surveillance was 0.24% in cattle (5 127/2 151 173) and 0.59% in sheep/goats (4 866/ 828 790).
    Conclusion The incidence of human brucellosis showed obvious age, season and area distributions in China. Given the high heterogeneity in seropositive rates from human and animal surveillance, it is suggested to reallocate more resources toward animal brucellosis prevention and control and strengthen source control based on livestock surveillance and disinfection.

     

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