2025年9月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in September 2025

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2025年9月中国境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2025年9月监测到17种传染病在全球31个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。 对我国的输入风险方面,高风险事件2个,中风险事件21个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件1个,中风险事件22个。
    结论 建议重点关注泰国的登革热疫情,法国的基孔肯雅热疫情可能带来的输入风险。 海外旅行风险方面,建议出国旅行者重点关注尼日利亚的白喉疫情。 相较8月,9月还需重点关注泰国的登革热疫情,尼日利亚的白喉疫情。 一般关注刚果民主共和国的埃博拉出血热疫情,巴西、巴拿马、印度的登革热疫情,海地的霍乱疫情,孟加拉国、中国澳门、巴西的基孔肯雅热疫情,巴基斯坦、阿富汗、索马里的脊髓灰质炎疫情,蒙古和美国的鼠疫疫情,俄罗斯、美国、加拿大的西尼罗病毒病疫情,墨西哥的寨卡疫情,尼日利亚的拉沙热疫情,塞内加尔的裂谷热疫情可能带来的感染风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in September 2025 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the Internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In September 2025, 17 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 31 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 2 high-risk events and 21 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 1 high-risk events and 22 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion It is recommended to focus on the potential import risks posed by the dengue fever in Thailand and the chikungunya fever in France. Regarding overseas travel risks, it is advised that travelers abroad pay close attention to the diphtheria in Nigeria. Compared to August, in September, special attention should continue to be paid to the dengue fever in Thailand and the diphtheria in Nigeria. General attention should also be paid to the Ebola hemorrhagic fever in the Democratic Republic of Congo; the dengue fever in Brazil, Panama, and India; the cholera in Haiti; the chikungunya fever in Bangladesh, Macao, China, and Brazil; the polio in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Somalia; the plague in Mongolia and the United States; the West Nile virus disease in Russia, the United States, and Canada; the Zika in Mexico; the Lassa fever in Nigeria; and the Rift Valley fever in Senegal.

     

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