Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan region, the same below) in October 2025.

Methods  Based on the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and surveillance results of key infectious diseases or notifications from relative agencies and departments, the expert consultation conference was hold and experts from provincial (autonomous region and municipal) centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.

Results It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in October 2025 would be similar to that in September 2025. The main public health emergencies would be infectious diseases. The risk of imported chikungunya fever cases from abroad and cross-regional spread will persist, with the risk of imported cases leading to local transmission in Class Ⅰ and some Class Ⅱ areas. The risk of imported dengue fever cases and cross-regional spread is on the rise. Class Ⅰ and Class Ⅱ provinces face a higher risk of cluster outbreaks. Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is currently at its autumn peak, with the number of reported cases shows a continuous increasing trend, potentially leading to a rise in cluster outbreaks in kindergartens and schools. In October, norovirus outbreaks will be continue to show a slight increase, with crowded settings such as schools and kindergartens being high-risk locations for norovirus infection outbreaks. In the short term, the risk of imported mpox sublineage Ⅰb outbreak from abroad and local secondary transmission in China will persist, while the mpox sublineage Ⅱb is expected to remain at a low-level transmission. The risk of sporadic human infections with novel influenza subtypes persists. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic will continue to show a downward trend, though the risk of virus transmission remains. Vulnerable groups, such as the very elderly, still face a relatively high risk of severe illness following COVID-19.

Conclusion Attention should be paid to chikungunya fever, dengue fever, HFMD, norovirus enteritis, mpox, human infections with novel influenza subtypes, COVID-19.