2018-2024年海南省百日咳流行特征与发病趋势分析

Analysis on epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of pertussis in Hainan, 2018−2024

  • 摘要:
    目的  分析2018-2024年海南省百日咳流行特征与发病趋势,为百日咳防控策略优化提供参考依据。
    方法  选择传染病报告管理信息系统中海南省2018-2024年百日咳报告病例数据,采用描述性流行病学方法描述病例三间分布特征,通过复合增长率计算年均增长率,运用集中度和圆形分布法分析季节性特征;利用WPS整理数据并分析流行病学特征,Joinpoint软件分析发病率趋势及平均年度变化百分比(AAPC),R4.4.1软件进行地区发病率聚类分析。
    结果  2018-2024年海南省累计报告百日咳3435例,年均发病率4.98/10万,年均增长率达105.29%。集中度分析显示部分年份存在季节性,圆形分布法提示全年均可出现高峰。地区分布不均,海口市病例数最多(1180例),前5市(县)占全省71.30%;聚类分析将18市(县)划分为5类流行等级,昌江县、海口市和澄迈县为高流行地区。年均发病率男性(5.24/10万)高于女性(4.68/10万)(χ2=10.874,P<0.001)。病例主要集中于5~<10岁组(42.56%,年均发病率29.82/10万)和0~<1岁组(34.41%,年均发病率171.43/10万),0~<1岁组中1月龄病例数较0月龄显著增加,峰值出现在3月龄(224例,18.95%)。Joinpoint回归显示0~<1岁、5~<10岁、10~<15岁及15~岁组发病率均呈显著上升趋势(AAPC: 5~<10岁组127.03%,10~<15岁组119.93%)。病例以散居儿童(47.28%)为主,其次为幼托儿童(26.87%)和学生(24.80%)。
    结论  2018-2024年海南省百日咳发病率呈波动上升趋势,地区分布不均,发病人群以低月龄儿童和学生为主。建议加强重点地区和重点人群监测,优化百日咳防控策略。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To understand the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of pertussis in Hainan province from 2018 to 2024, and provide critical evidence for the improvement of pertussis prevention and control strategies.
    Methods The incidence data of pertussis in Hainan from 2018 to 2024 were collected from the Infectious Disease Reporting Management Information System for a descriptive epidemiological analysis to describe the spatial, time and population distributions of the pertussis cases. The annual average growth rate was calculated by using the compound annual growth rate, and analyze the seasonality of pertussis were analyzed by using concentration and circular distribution methods. The data were processed and the epidemiological characteristics were analyzed by using WPS, the incidence trends and average annual percentage change (AAPC) analyzed by using software Joinpoint, and regional incidence clustering analysis was conducted by using software R version 4.4.1.
    Results From 2018 to 2024, a total of 3 435 pertussis cases were reported in Hainan, with an average annual incidence of 4.98/100 000 and an average annual growth rate of 105.29%. The concentration analysis showed that the disease incidence showed seasonality in some years, and the circular distribution method suggested that the high incidence could occur all the year round. The area distribution of the cases was uneven, with Haikou reporting 1 180 cases, accounting for 71.30% of of the cases reported in top 5 areas with high incidences in the province; Cluster analysis divided the pertussis incidence in 18 counties (city) into 5 levels, with Changjiang, Haikou and Chengmai being the high incidence areas. The average annual incidence rate was higher in men (5.24/100 000) than in women (4.68/100 000)(χ2=10.874, P<0.001). The cases were mainly distributed in the age group 5−<10 years (42.56%) with the average annual incidence rate of 29.82/100 000 and the age group 0−<1 year (34.41%) with the average annual incidence rate of 171.43/100 000. In the age group 0−<1 year, the pertussis cases in those aged 1 month increased significantly compared with those aged <1 month, and the incidence peaked in age group at 3 months (224 cases, 18.95%). Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the incidence in age group0−<1 year, 5−<10 years, 10−<15 years and 15− years showed significant increases (AAPC: 127.03% in the 5−<10 year old group and 119.93% in the 10−<15 year old group). The cases were mainly home-cared children (47.28%), followed by children in child care settings (26.87%) and students (24.80%).
    Conclusion From 2018 to 2024, the incidence of pertussis showed a fluctuating upward trend in Hainan, with uneven area distribution, and the cases were mainly young children and students. It is suggested to strengthen the surveillance in key areas and key populations and improve pertussis prevention and control strategies.

     

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