Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B in Yunnan province from 2014 to 2023, predict future incidence trend and provide reference for the development of targeted hepatitis B prevention and control strategies.

Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B in Yunnan. A hybrid forecasting model combining Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model and Support Vector Regression (SVR) model was constructed to predict the incidence of hepatitis B.

Results A total of 174 305 hepatitis B cases were reported in Yunnan from 2014 to 2023, with an average annual incidence rate of 36.70/100 000. In the reported hepatitis B cases, most were chronic ones (140582 cases, 80.65%). The reported incidence of hepatitis B showed a significant downward trend during the study period (Z=−73.86, P<0.001), with a seasonal peak occurring in winter and spring. Several prefectures showed varying degrees of increase of reported hepatitis B incidence during 2016−2023. The reported hepatitis B cases were mainly individuals aged ≥35 years (143254 cases, 82.18%). The incidence rate in men (47.91/100 000) was significantly higher than that in women (24.66/100,000), and the difference was significant (χ²=17537.054, P<0.001). Farmers were mostly affected occupational group (77.21%). The SARIMA-SVR hybrid model outperformed the single SARIMA model, with a lower root mean square error (RMSE: 98.3448 vs. 126.8590) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE:7.8797% vs. 10.7856%), indicating better predictive accuracy and stability. The model predicted that 12 762 hepatitis B cases would be reported in Yunnan in 2024, a 3.77% decrease compared with that reported in 2023 (13 283 cases).

Conclusion The reported incidence of hepatitis B in Yunnan showed an overall declining trend in younger age groups from 2014 to 2023, which could be attributed to the hepatitis B vaccination program and the blocking of mother to infant transmission; however, the overall incidence of hepatitis B remained at certain level. Men, individuals aged 35-<60 years, and farmers were identified as key populations for hepatitis B prevention and control. The SARIMA–SVR hybrid model demonstrated good performance in the prediction of hepatitis B incidence trends in Yunnan .