Objective  To understand the mortality of injury and predict its future trend in Hongkou district, Shanghai, and provide evidence for the development of injury prevention strategies.

Methods Using cause-of-death surveillance data from Hongkou between 2003 and 2022, the mortality rates and disease burden indicators of three major types of injury were calculated. Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the mortality trend. Age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the effects of age, period, and cohort, while Bayesian age–period–cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict its future trend in the following decade.

Results From 2003 to 2022, the age-standardized mortality rate of injury showed a fluctuating downward trend in Hongkou (AAPC=−1.07%, P=0.044), with an average loss of 7.98 years of life expectancy. The net drift estimated by the age-period-cohort model was 0.985 (95% CI: 0.976-0.994), indicating an average annual decline of approximately 1.50% in the mortality. The BAPC model predicted an overall increase of the standardized mortality rate of injury in the following decade: the standardized mortality caused by accidental falls would increase gradually, the standardized mortality of suicide and its sequelae would increase steadily, while the decrease of the standardized mortality from road traffic accident would continue.

Conclusion The injury mortality was jointly influenced by age, period, and cohort effects in Hongkou. Therefore, it is very important to implement targeted prevention and effective interventions to steadily reduce the death risk caused by injury.