2025年10月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk Assessment of Global Infectious Disease Events in October 2025

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2025年10月境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2025年10月监测到18种传染病在全球38个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。对我国的输入风险方面,高风险事件0个,中风险事件16个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件6个,中风险事件30个。
    结论 海外旅行风险方面,建议出国(境)旅行者重点关注哥伦比亚、孟加拉国、基里巴斯、萨摩亚的登革热疫情,巴西、孟加拉国的基孔肯雅热疫情。相较9月,10月还需重点关注哥伦比亚、孟加拉国、基里巴斯、萨摩亚的登革热疫情,巴西和孟加拉国的基孔肯雅热疫情。一般关注毛里塔尼亚、马里、南非的白喉疫情,新西兰的百日咳疫情,斯里兰卡、巴基斯坦、墨西哥的登革热疫情,日本的发热伴血小板减少综合征疫情,马拉维、加纳、科特迪瓦的猴痘疫情,印度、肯尼亚、尼日利亚、安哥拉、苏丹、刚果民主共和国、南苏丹的霍乱疫情,美国、印度的基孔肯雅热疫情,印度、安哥拉、老挝、尼日利亚、巴布亚新几内亚的脊髓灰质炎疫情,意大利的西尼罗病毒病疫情可能带来的感染风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside mainland China in October 2025 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In October 2025, 18 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 38 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 0 high-risk events and 16 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 6 high-risk events and 30 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion Regarding overseas travel risks, it is advised that travelers pay close attention to dengue fever in Colombia, Bangladesh, Kiribati, and Samoa, and chikungunya fever in Brazil and Bangladesh. Compared to September, in October, special attention should continue to be paid to dengue fever in Colombia, Bangladesh, Kiribati, and Samoa, as well as chikungunya fever in Brazil and Bangladesh. General attention should also be paid to diphtheria in Mauritania, Mali, and South Africa; pertussis in New Zealand; dengue fever in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Mexico; SFTS(Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome) in Japan; mpox in Malawi, Ghana, and Côte d'Ivoire; cholera in India, Kenya, Nigeria, Angola, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan; chikungunya fever in the United States and India; poliomyelitis in India, Angola, Laos, Nigeria, and Papua New Guinea; West Nile virus disease in Italy.

     

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