2025年11月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, November 2025

  • 摘要:
    目的 评估2025年11月在我国(不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
    方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请各省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。
    结果 2025年11月突发公共卫生事件数可能较10月增加,以传染病类事件为主。当前急性呼吸道传染病呈上升趋势,我国南、北方省份流感病毒检测阳性率快速上升,进入中等流行水平。广东、广西、海南、福建等4个Ⅰ类重点省份和云南省西双版纳州等南部地区11月仍处于媒介伊蚊活跃期,基孔肯雅热输入续发本地传播风险仍然较高,存在聚集性疫情风险。登革热疫情进入下降阶段,广东、广西、海南、福建等4个Ⅰ类重点省份和云南省西双版纳州等南部地区本地传播风险仍然较高,存在聚集性疫情风险。Ⅱ类省份仍面临境外和省外输入风险,但本土传播风险较低。手足口病正值秋季流行后期,报告病例数将逐渐回落。11月诺如病毒肠炎暴发可能继续出现小幅上升,学校和托幼机构等人群聚集场所是诺如病毒肠炎疫情高发场所。短期内我国仍持续存在猴痘Ⅰb亚分支疫情输入及续发传播风险,猴痘Ⅱb亚分支疫情将在重点人群中处于低水平传播态势。西非为拉沙热地方性流行地区,我国赴疫区野外作业或旅行人员如果接触啮齿类动物或者被其污染物品者存在一定的感染风险。人感染新亚型流感散发疫情的风险持续存在。随着北方进入燃煤取暖季节,非职业性一氧化碳中毒风险增加。
    结论 对流行性感冒、急性呼吸道传染病、基孔肯雅热、登革热、手足口病、诺如病毒肠炎、猴痘、拉沙热、人感染新亚型流感及非职业性一氧化碳中毒等予以关注。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan region, the same below) in November 2025.
    Methods  Based on the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and surveillance results of key infectious diseases or notifications from relative agencies and departments, the expert consultation conference was hold and experts from provincial (autonomous region and municipal) centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.
    Results  It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in November 2025 may increasing compared with October 2025, driven primarily by infectious diseases. Currently, the acute respiratory infectious diseases are trending upward. Influenza virus positivity rates in both southern and northern Chinese provinces have risen rapidly to moderate levels. In November, Aedes mosquito vectors remain active in four Class I provinces (Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Fujian) and southern regions such as Xishuangbanna Prefecture in Yunnan province. Consequently, the risk of local transmission following imported chikungunya fever cases remains relatively high, and the potential for local outbreaks persists. While dengue fever activity is entering a declining phase, the risk of local transmission in the aforementioned Class I areas and southern regions remains elevated, posing a continued threat of clustered cases. Class II areas continue to face the risk of case importation from abroad and other provinces, though the risk of sustained local transmission is low. Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is in the late stage of its autumn peak, and reported cases are predicted to gradually decrease. In November, norovirus enteritis outbreaks were expected to continue showing a slight increase. Crowded settings, particularly schools and kindergartens, are identified as high-risk environments for epidemic transmission. In the short term, the risk of imported mpox sublineage Ib outbreak from abroad and local secondary transmission within China will persist. Meanwhile, mpox sublineage IIb is expected to maintain low-level transmission among key populations. Lassa fever remains endemic in West Africa; Chinese personnel traveling to or working in field settings in endemic areas face a risk of infection if they come into contact with rodents or rodent-contaminated items. Furthermore, the risk of sporadic human infections with novel influenza subtypes persists. Finally, non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning has entered its high-incidence seasonal period, particularly in northern China due to colder weather and improper heating methods.
    Conclusion  Attention should be paid to influenza, multiple acute respiratory infectious diseases, chikungunya fever, dengue fever, HFMD, norovirus enteritis, mpox, Lassa fever, human infections with novel influenza subtypes and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning.

     

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