2005-2024年中国登革热传播风险Ⅱ类地区流行特征:基于三类病例的时空分析

Epidemiological characteristics of dengue fever in class Ⅱ dengue transmission risk areas of China, 2005–2024: a spatiotemporal analysis based on three case types

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2005-2024年中国登革热传播风险Ⅱ类地区本地、省外输入和境外输入三类病例的流行特征,为其精准防控提供决策依据。
    方法 基于传染病监测数据,运用一般线性回归模型分析长期趋势,并通过排除登革热传播风险Ⅰ类地区及2020-2022年数据评估Ⅱ类地区相对重要性变化;采用描述性流行病学方法分析人群、空间和时间分布特征。
    结果 2005-2024年,Ⅱ类地区本地病例占非Ⅰ类地区的比例以每年2.52百分点的速度显著增长(β=2.52, P<0.001)。 人群分布显示:山东省、河南省、湖北省等省份的本地病例以老年农民为主;江西省、重庆市以家务及待业女性为主;输入病例以青壮年男性为主。 空间分布呈现三类模式:湖南省面临三重风险叠加;重庆市、江西省以本地传播为主;四川省为重要境外输入门户。 时间分布呈现三阶段规律:1-7月境外输入为主(占71.43%~95.56%),8月进入本地暴发期(江西省8月本地病例占比94.77%),9月后省外输入加剧(湖南省10月省外输入占比70.63%)。
    结论 2005-2024年间,中国登革热Ⅱ类地区传播风险持续上升,流行特征呈现明显的区域分异与季节规律:境外输入病例以青壮年男性为主,本地病例中山东省、河南省、湖北省以老年农民占优势,江西省、重庆市以待业及家务女性居多;时间上呈“夏秋之前境外输入、8月本地暴发、秋季省际输入增强”的季节规律。 因此,亟需构建与区域流行特征相匹配的精准防控体系,通过分区预警、分类干预、分时段施策,全面提升登革热防控效能。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of local cases, cases imported from other provinces, and cases imported from abroad in Class Ⅱ dengue transmission risk fever areas of China from 2005 to 2024.
    Methods Based on notifiable infectious disease surveillance data, a general linear regression model was used to analyze long-term trends. The relative importance of Class Ⅱ areas was assessed by excluding Class Ⅰ dengue transmission risk areas and data from 2020−2022. Descriptive epidemiological methods were employed to analyze the distribution characteristics across populations, space, and time.
    Results From 2005 to 2024,the proportion of local cases occurring in Class Ⅱ areas (relative to non-Class Ⅰ areas) increased significantly at a rate of 2.52 percentage points per year (β=2.52, P<0.001). Population distribution analysis revealed that local cases in provinces like Shandong, Henan, and Hubei were primarily elderly farmers; in Jiangxi and Chongqing, local cases were predominantly housewives or unemployed women; meanwhile, imported cases were mainly young and middle-aged males. Spatial distribution revealed three patterns: Hunan faced overlapping triple risks (local, other provinces, and abroad); Chongqing and Jiangxi were dominated by local transmission; Sichuan served as a major gateway for overseas imported cases. Temporal distribution exhibited a three-phase pattern: imported cases (71.43%−95.56% from abroad) dominated from January to July; local outbreaks began in August (local cases accounted for 94.77% of August cases in Jiangxi);and domestic imported cases intensified after September (cases imported from other provinces accounted for 70.63% of October cases in Hunan).
    Conclusion Between 2005 and 2024, the risk of dengue transmission in Class Ⅱ regions of China has been continuously increasing, with epidemic characteristics exhibiting significant regional heterogeneity and seasonal patterns. Imported cases were predominantly observed among young and middle-aged males, while local cases in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei were mainly elderly farmers. In Jiangxi and Chongqing, the majority were unemployed individuals and homemakers. Temporally, the seasonal pattern showed imported cases before summer and autumn, local outbreaks in August, and increased interprovincial transmission in autumn. Therefore, it is urgent to establish a precise prevention and control system tailored to regional epidemic characteristics. By implementing region-specific early warning, category-based interventions, and time-phased strategies, the effectiveness of dengue fever prevention and control can be comprehensively enhanced.

     

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