2013—2023年湖南省肾综合征出血热流行特征及时空聚集性分析

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Hunan Province, 2013—2023

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2013—2023年湖南省肾综合征出血热流行特征及时空聚集性,为湖南省肾综合征出血热防控提供科学依据。
    方法 在中国疾病预防控制信息系统—监测报告管理系统收集2013—2023年湖南省肾综合征出血热病例资料并对资料进行描述性分析;使用 Geoda 1.16 软件对肾综合征出血热发病率进行空间自相关分析;通过 SaTScan 10.1 软件探测病例的时空聚集性。
    结果 2013—2023年湖南省累计报告肾综合征出血热病例6458例,年均报告发病率为0.87/10万,总体呈下降趋势(趋势χ2=571.11,P<0.001),流行季节呈“双峰”分布(4-6月和11-次年1月),高发人群为中老年男性农民,14个市州均报告肾综合征出血热病例,发病率最高的县(市区)为娄底市冷水江市(66.59/10万);发病率在湖南省范围内存在显著的空间正相关性,发病率的“高-高”聚集区随着时间的推移出现从湖南西南部向中部和东部地区转移的趋势,“低-低”聚集区主要集中于湖南西北部地区;时空扫描探测到1个一类聚集区,2个二类聚集区,一类聚集区涉及长沙、益阳和常德的5个县(市区),时间为夏初;宿主动物监测结果显示宿主动物阳性率为2.73%,双峰县的阳性率最高(6.44%,60/931),炎陵县最低(1.02%,6/590)(χ2=71.057,P<0.001)。
    结论 湖南省肾综合征出血热疫情呈下降趋势,中老年男性农民为高发人群,发病存在时间和空间聚集性,高峰集中在春末夏初(4-6月)和冬季(11-次年1月),中部和东部地区的湘潭、长沙、益阳、常德等市为近年发病热点区域,应予以重点关注,做到区域协同、精准防控,宿主动物阳性率较低,建议动态调整宿主动物监测点。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatial and temporal clustering of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Hunan Province from 2013 to 2023, and provide scientific basis for HFRS prevention and control in Hunan Province.
    Methods Data of HFRS cases in Hunan Province from 2013 to 2023 were collected from China Disease Control and Prevention Information System-Surveillance Report Management System and analyzed descriptively. Spatiotemporal clustering of cases was detected by SaTScan10.1 software.
    Results A total of 6458 HFRS cases were reported in Hunan Province from 2013 to 2023, with an average annual incidence of 0.87/100 000, showing a downward trend (Trend χ2=571.11, P<0.001), epidemic season showed "double peak" distribution (April to June and November to January), the high incidence population was middle-aged male farmers, 14 cities and prefectures reported HFRS cases, the top county (urban areas) were Loudi City Lengshuijiang (66.59/100000). The incidence rate in Hunan Province has significant spatial positive correlation, The "high-high" cluster area of incidence rate has a trend of shifting from southwest to central and eastern Hunan with time, and the "low-low" cluster area mainly concentrates in northwest Hunan. One cluster area of the first class and two cluster areas of the second class were detected by space-time scanning. The cluster area of the first class involved 5 counties and cities of Changsha, Yiyang and Changde, and the time was early summer. The positive rate of host animals was 2.73%, and the difference of positive rate among different monitoring points was statistically significant.
    Conclusion The epidemic situation of HFRS in Hunan Province showed a downward trend, showing a significant spatial positive correlation, attention should be paid to the prevention and control work in key areas, key populations and key periods, so as to achieve regional coordination and precise prevention and control.

     

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