2025年11月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in November 2025

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2025年11月境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2025年11月监测到14种传染病在全球37个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。对我国的输入风险方面,高风险事件1个,中风险事件11个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件5个,中风险事件26个。
    结论 建议重点关注埃塞俄比亚的马尔堡出血热疫情可能带来的输入风险。海外旅行风险方面,建议出国(境)旅行者重点关注索马里的白喉疫情,越南的登革热疫情,哥伦比亚的黄热病疫情,南苏丹的霍乱疫情,埃塞俄比亚的马尔堡出血热疫情。相较10月,11月还需一般关注立陶宛和也门的白喉疫情,阿富汗、巴基斯坦、新加坡、也门、越南的登革热疫情,韩国的发热伴血小板减少综合征疫情,巴西的黄热病疫情,海地和莫桑比克的霍乱疫情,法国、古巴、意大利的基孔肯雅热疫情,冈比亚和塞内加尔的裂谷热疫情,柬埔寨和美国的人感染禽流感疫情可能带来的感染风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in November 2025 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In November 2025, 14 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 37 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 1 high-risk events and 11 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 5 high-risk events and 26 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion It is recommended to focus on the potential import risks posed by the Marburg hemorrhagic fever in Ethiopia. Regarding overseas travel risks, it is advised that travelers pay close attention to diphtheria in Somalia, the dengue fever in Vietnam, the yellow fever in Colombia, the cholera in South Sudan, the Marburg hemorrhagic fever in Ethiopia. Compared to October, in November, general attention should also be paid to the potential infection risks posed by diphtheria in Lithuania and Yemen; the dengue fever in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Singapore, Yemen, and Vietnam; the Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome(SFTS) in South Korea, the yellow fever in Brazil; the cholera in Haiti and Mozambique; the chikungunya fever in France, Cuba, and Italy; the Rift Valley fever in Gambia and Senegal; and the human avian influenza in Cambodia and the United States.

     

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