2026年1月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, January 2026

  • 摘要:
    目的 评估2026年1月在我国(不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
    方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请各省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。
    结果 2026年1月突发公共卫生事件报告数可能较2025年12月减少,以传染病事件为主。当前我国急性呼吸道传染病仍处于高发季节,总体呈下降趋势。流行性感冒(流感)处于中流行水平,流行毒株仍以A(H3N2)亚型为主。诺如病毒胃肠炎疫情可能继续小幅上升,学校和托幼机构等人群聚集场所是诺如病毒疫情的高发场所。短期内我国猴痘Ⅱb亚分支疫情仍然保持低水平波动态势,猴痘Ⅰa、Ⅰb亚分支病例输入我国的风险持续存在。人感染禽流感散发疫情的风险持续存在,塞内加尔和毛里塔尼亚裂谷热疫情输入我国风险低,埃塞俄比亚马尔堡病毒病输入我国风险低,非职业性一氧化碳中毒风险增加。随着 2026 年春节临近,归国返乡人员可能带回境外输入传染病(如疟疾、登革热、基孔肯雅热、拉沙热等)的风险。
    结论 对流感、急性呼吸道传染病、诺如病毒胃肠炎、猴痘、人感染新亚型流感、裂谷热、马尔堡病毒病及非职业性一氧化碳中毒等予以关注。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan region, the same below) in January 2026.
    Methods  Based on the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and surveillance results of key infectious diseases or notifications from relative agencies and departments, the expert consultation conference was hold and experts from provincial (autonomous region and municipal) centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.
    Results  The number of reported public health emergencies in January 2026 may decrease compared to December 2025. The main public health emergencies would be infectious diseases. Currently, acute respiratory infectious diseases in China are still in the high season, with an overall downward trend. Influenza is at a moderate epidemic level, and the prevalent strain is still dominated by the A(H3N2) subtype. The outbreak of norovirus gastroenteritis may continue to rise slightly, with schools and childcare institutions being high-risk areas for norovirus outbreaks. In the short term, the mpox IIb sublineage outbreak in China will remain at a low level, and the risk of imported cases of mpox Ia and Ib sublineages persists. The risk of sporadic human infections with avian influenza persists. The risk of Rift Valley fever outbreak in Senegal and Mauritania entering China is low. The risk of importing Marburg virus disease from Ethiopia into China is low. The risk of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning will increase. As the 2026 Spring Festival approaches, heightened vigilance is required regarding the potential risk of imported infectious diseases (such as malaria, dengue fever, chikungunya fever, and Lassa fever) that may be introduced through returning travelers.
    Conclusion  Attention should be paid to influenza, multiple acute respiratory infectious diseases, norovirus enteritis, mpox, human infection with novel influenza subtypes, Rift Valley fever, Marburg virus disease and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning.

     

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