2025年12月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in December 2025

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2025年12月境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2025年12月监测到13种传染病在全球29个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。对我国的输入风险方面,中风险事件13个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件6个,中风险事件23个。
    结论 建议一般关注新加坡、孟加拉国、马来西亚、斯里兰卡、墨西哥、古巴、巴西的登革热疫情,巴西、古巴、美国的基孔肯雅热疫情,巴基斯坦的霍乱疫情,埃塞俄比亚的马尔堡出血热疫情,法国的中东呼吸综合征疫情可能带来的输入风险。海外旅行风险方面,建议出国(境)旅行者重点关注巴西、孟加拉国、墨西哥和古巴的登革热疫情,古巴的基孔肯雅热疫情,埃塞俄比亚的马尔堡出血热疫情。相较11月,12月还需一般关注马来西亚、斯里兰卡的登革热疫情,美国和玻利维亚的基孔肯雅热疫情,巴基斯坦、马拉维的霍乱疫情,尼日利亚的拉沙热疫情,索马里、马里的白喉疫情,毛里塔尼亚的裂谷热疫情,哥伦比亚的黄热病疫情,埃塞俄比亚、索马里、苏丹、安哥拉、尼日利亚、乍得、刚果民主共和国的脊髓灰质炎疫情可能带来的感染风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objectives To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in December 2025 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In December 2025, 13 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 29 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 13 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 6 high-risk events and 23 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion It is recommended to pay moderate attention to the possible importation risk posed by dengue fever in Singapore, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Mexico, Cuba and Brazil, chikungunya fever in Brazil, Cuba and the United States, cholera in Pakistan, marburg hemorrhagic fever in Ethiopia, MERS in France. Regarding overseas travel risks, it is advised that travelers pay close attention to dengue fever in Brazil, Bangladesh, Mexico and Cuba; chikungunya fever in Cuba, marburg hemorrhagic fever in Ethiopia. Compared to November, in December, general attention should also be paid to the potential infection risks posed by dengue fever in Malaysia and Sri Lanka, chikungunya fever in the United States and Bolivia, cholera in Pakistan and Malawi, Lassa fever in Nigeria, diphtheria in Somalia and Mali, Rift Valley fever in Mauritania, yellow fever in Colombia, and polio in Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, Angola, Nigeria, Chad, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

     

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