2014-2023年江苏省南京市肺结核病例发现延误情况及影响因素分析

Analysis on delays in pulmonary tuberculosis case detection and influencing factors in Nanjing, Jiangsu, 2014–2023

  • 摘要:
    目的  分析江苏省南京市2014-2023年肺结核患者发现延误的现状、变化趋势以及影响因素,为减少肺结核患者发现延误提供科学依据。
    方法  通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统的结核病管理信息系统收集2014-2023年现住址为南京市的肺结核患者相关病案信息,采用描述性流行病学方法分析南京市肺结核患者发现延误的分布特征,使用Joinpoint回归模型分析肺结核患者发现延误率的时间变化趋势,采用logistic回归模型分析发现延误的影响因素。
    结果  2014-2023年南京市肺结核患者平均发现时间中位数为30 d,平均发现延误率为54.28%(13 155/24 236);发现延误率由2014年的48.13%上升至2023年的56.04%,但总体变化趋势差异无统计学意义平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)=1.23%,95%CI:−1.27%~3.80%,t=0.957,P=0.339。多因素logistic回归分析显示,女性(OR=1.24,95%CI:1.17~1.31,P<0.001)、45~<60岁年龄组(OR=1.47,95%CI:1.36~1.58,P<0.001)、60岁以上年龄组(OR=1.62,95%CI:1.50~1.75,P<0.001)、重点人群(OR=1.06,95%CI:1.00~1.13,P=0.036)、病原学阳性(OR=1.29,95%CI:1.22~1.36,P<0.001)更容易出现就诊延误;15~<25岁年龄组(OR=0.87,95%CI:0.79~0.97,P=0.013)、学生和儿童(OR=0.80,95%CI:0.66~0.96,P=0.015)较少出现就诊延误。女性(OR=1.09,95%CI:1.03~1.16,P=0.006)、职业为其他和不详(OR=1.18,95%CI:1.03~1.35,P=0.015)更容易出现诊断延误;60岁以上年龄组(OR=0.89,95%CI:0.82~0.97,P=0.008)、重点人群(OR=0.83,95%CI:0.78~0.89,P<0.001)、学生和儿童(OR=0.79,95%CI:0.65~0.96,P=0.017)、医务人员(OR=0.60,95%CI:0.43~0.84,P=0.003)、农(渔、海)民(工)(OR=0.61,95%CI:0.53~0.70,P<0.001)、病原学阳性(OR=0.73,95%CI:0.69~0.77,P<0.001)较少出现诊断延误。
    结论 南京市肺结核患者的发现延误情况较为严重,应重点关注女性、45岁以上中老年人群和重点人群肺结核患者的就诊延误情况,以及女性、非重点人群的诊断延误情况,需采取综合防治措施提高肺结核患者发现水平。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To analyze the current status, trend of detection delay of pulmonary tuberculosis cases, and influencing factors in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, from 2014 to 2023 and provide evidence for the improvement of pulmonary tuberculosis diagnosis.
    Methods The information of pulmonary tuberculosis cases living Nanjing from 2014 to 2023 were collected from Tuberculosis Management Information System of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention for a descriptive epidemiological analysis on the distribution of delayed diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Nanjing. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trend of the rate of delayed diagnosis, and logistic regression model was used to identify the factors influencing the delayed diagnosis.
    Results  From 2014 to 2023, the median time for the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis in Nanjing was 30 days, and the average delay rate was 54.28% (13 155/24 236). The detection delay rate increased from 48.13% in 2014 to 56.04% in 2023. However, the overall trend showed no significant difference average annual percentage change (AAPC)=1.23%, 95%CI: −1.27% to 3.80%, t=0.957, P=0.339. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that women (OR=1.24, 95%CI: 1.17−1.31, P < 0.001), those aged 45−<60 years (OR=1.47, 95%CI: 1.36−1.58, P < 0.001), those aged ≥60 years (OR=1.62, 95%CI: 1.50−1.75, P < 0.001), key groups (OR=1.06, 95%CI: 1.00−1.13, P=0.036), and those with positive pathogen test results (OR=1.29, 95%CI: 1.22−1.36, P<0.001) were more likely to have delays in seeking medical care, The age group 15−<25 years (OR=0.87, 95%CI: 0.79−0.97, P=0.013) and students and children (OR=0.80, 95%CI: 0.66−0.96, P=0.015) were less likely to have delays in seeking medical care. Women (OR=1.09, 95%CI: 1.03−1.16, P=0.006) and those with other or unknown occupations (OR=1.18, 95%CI: 1.03−1.35, P=0.015) were more likely to have diagnosis delays. Those aged ≥60 years (OR=0.89, 95%CI: 0.82−0.97, P=0.008), key groups (OR=0.83, 95%CI: 0.78−0.89, P<0.001), students and children (OR=0.79, 95%CI: 0.65−0.96, P=0.017), healthcare workers (OR=0.60, 95%CI: 0.43−0.84, P=0.003), farmers (fishermen, seafarers, and migrant workers) (OR=0.61, 95%CI: 0.53−0.70, P<0.001), and those with positive pathogen test results (OR=0.73, 95%CI: 0.69−0.77, P<0.001) were less likely to have diagnosis delays.
    Conclusion The delayed detection of pulmonary tuberculosis cases was severe in Nanjing. Close attention should be paid to the hospital visit delay in women, middle age and elderly population and key groups for pulmonary tuberculosis and the pulmonary tuberculosis diagnosis delay in women and non-key groups. It is necessary take comprehensive measures to improve the detection of pulmonary tuberculosis.

     

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