Objective To analyze the disease burden and incidence trend of road traffic injury in Jing'an district, Shanghai municipality, from 1990 to 2021, and provide evidence for the local prevention and control of road traffic injury and the optimization of health resources.

Methods The mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and DALYs rate of road traffic injury in Jing'an were calculated by using road traffic injury mortality data from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the incidence trends. Age-standardized mortality rates and age-standardized DALY rates for 2022–2030 were predicted by using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model (BAPC).

Results From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized mortality rate of road traffic injury was 5.44/100 000 in Jing'an, the rate was 7.28/100 000 in men and 3.53/100 000 in women, the rate was significantly higher in men than in women (χ² = 222.849, P < 0.001). The age-standardized DALY rate was 241.76/100 000, the rates was 319.85/100 000 in men and 165.04 /100 000 in women, and the rate was significantly higher in men than in women (χ² = 50.158, P < 0.01). The overall age-standardized road traffic injury mortality rate showed an increase first, then a decrease from 1990 to 2021, the decrease was observed in 1995. Similarly, the overall age-standardized DALY rate exhibited an increase first and then a decrease in 1995. The mortality rate of road traffic injury increased with age (χ² = 866.717, P < 0.01), showing a rapid rise after the age 65 years. By age group, the overall mortality rate in age group 15～<45-year began to decrease in 1995, the overall mortality rate in age group 45～<65 years began to decrease in 1998, and the overall mortality rate in age group ≥65-years showed a declining trend throughout the period. Regarding the types of road traffic, the standardized mortality rate of road traffic injury in drivers and passengers of motor vehicles showed a downward trend, whereas the rate in driver and passenger of motorcycles exhibited an upward trend after 2008. Based on the BAPC model prediction, the age-standardized mortality rate and age-standardized DALY rate of road traffic injury are expected to decline steadily in Jing'an from 2022 to 2030.

Conclusion  The overall disease burden level of road traffic injury showed a declining trend in Jing'an. The disease burden level was higher in men than in women, and the elderly aged ≥65 years remained to have higher disease burden level. It is necessary to improve traffic regulations and strengthen its enforcement, conduct health education about traffic safety to further reduce the disease burden caused by road traffic injury in Jing'an. Particular attention should be paid to men, the elderly, and people driving or taking motorcycles.