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2022—2024年湖北省武汉市颗粒物暴露与流行性感冒的时间序列分析

Association between particulate matter exposure and influenza in Wuhan, Hubei, 2022–2024

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的 探讨湖北省武汉市大气颗粒物短期暴露与居民流行性感冒（流感）报告发病人次之间的关系。
    方法 通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统的传染病监测报告系统收集2022—2024年湖北省武汉市流感报告发病人次数据、同期空气污染和气象数据，采用广义相加模型分别拟合细颗粒物（PM2.5）和可吸入颗粒物（PM10）浓度与每日流感发病人次之间的关系。采用单日滞后（lag0～lag7）和移动平均滞后（lag0～1至lag0～7）分析大气颗粒物短期暴露的滞后效应。同时，按年龄、性别、季节和居住地进行分层分析，并构建双污染物模型开展敏感性分析。
    结果 2022—2024年武汉市流感报告发病共计459 469人次，平均每日报告发病419.22人次，同期PM2.5和PM10日平均浓度分别为37.21和57.69 μg/m3。单日滞后分析中，PM2.5和PM10暴露当天（lag0）的影响最大，其浓度每升高10.00 μg/m3，流感报告发病人次分别增加3.88%和6.57%。在移动平均滞后分析中，颗粒物的危害效应随着累计暴露天数的增长而增强，PM2.5和PM10的0～7 d（lag0～7）平均暴露浓度每升高10.00 μg/m3，报告流感发病人次分别增加5.67%和11.52%。分层分析中，>60岁年龄组颗粒物暴露后效应值高于其他年龄组；女性颗粒物暴露后效应值高于男性。
    结论 2022—2024年武汉市PM2.5和PM10暴露浓度均与流感每日报告发病人次呈正相关关系，且受性别和年龄的影响。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To investigate the short-term association between ambient particulate matter exposure and reported influenza incidence in residents in Wuhan, Hubei province.
    Methods The incidence data of influenza reported in Wuhan from 2022 to 2024 were collected through the Infectious Disease Surveillance System of the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, and local air pollution and meteorological data during the same period were collected too. A generalized additive model was used to evaluate the associations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and inhalable particulate matter (PM10) concentrations with daily reported influenza cases. Single-day lags (lag0–lag7) and moving average lags (lag0–1–lag0–7) were used to analyze the lagged effects of short-term particulate matter exposure. Stratified analyses were performed by age, sex, season, and area of residence, and two-pollutant models were constructed for sensitivity analyses.
    Results A total of 459,469 influenza cases were reported in Wuhan from 2022 to 2024, with a daily average of 419.22 cases. The daily average concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 were 37.21 and 57.69 μg/m3. In single-day lag analysis, PM2.5 and PM10 had the greatest effect at lag 0 days. When the concentration of PM2.5 and PM10 increased by 10.00 μg/m3, the reported influenza cases increased by 3.88% and 6.57%. In the moving average lag analysis, the harmful effects of particulate matter increased with the increase of cumulative exposure days, and the influenza cases increased by 5.67% and 11.52% for each 10.00 μg/m3 increase of average exposure concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 at 0-7 days (lag 0-7), respectively. In stratified analysis, the effect estimates after particulate matter exposure were higher in people aged over 60 years than those in other age groups, and higher in women than in men.
    Conclusion Short-term exposures to PM2.5 and PM10 were positively associated with daily reported influenza cases in Wuhan during 2022–2024, and these associations are modified by age and sex.

     

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