2019-2024年西藏自治区细菌性痢疾流行特征及时空聚集性分析

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of bacillary dysentery inTibet, 2019–2024

  • 摘要:
    目的 了解西藏自治区2019-2024年细菌性痢疾(简称“菌痢”)的流行特征,并从空间和时间上识别细菌性痢疾传播的高风险区域,为针对性做好本地的防控工作提供科学依据。
    方法 从中国疾病预防控制信息系统和突发公共卫生事件报告管理信息系统中分别导出西藏自治区2019-2024年菌痢每月发病数据、突发公共卫生事件疫情信息和结案报告。采用描述流行病学研究方法分析该疾病的流行特征,应用Joinpoint回归分析评价发病升降趋势,运用空间自相关和时空扫描统计量探索发病的时空分布。
    结果 2019-2024年西藏自治区共报告菌痢3 896例,无死亡病例,年均报告发病率18.08/10万,总体发病呈逐年下降趋势(χ2趋势=699.461,P<0.001,APC=−22.10%,AAPC=−22.10%,95%CI:−37.09%~−9.70%,P<0.05),发病呈现明显的季节性,疫情高峰出现在6−9月,占全年的50.51%(1968/3896),7月达到峰值。年均报告发病率前三位的区县分别为拉萨市的曲水县(85.29/10万)、贡嘎县(71.74/10万)与日喀则市岗巴县(64.98/10万)。发病人群男女性别比为0.89∶1,以5岁以下年龄组发病率最高,为506.64/10万。菌痢各年全局空间自相关Moran's I都为正值,均P<0.05,高−高聚集模式主要集中在以城关区为核心构成的贡嘎县、林周县、扎囊县三角地带区域。时空扫描显示,聚集时间主要集中在5-11月,RR值为1.64~3.63。全区共报告4起学校暴发疫情,其中3起由饮水有关,1起由食物污染导致。
    结论 西藏自治区菌痢发病为单峰分布,主要集中在6-9月,5岁以下散居儿童为高发人群,发病存在空间聚集性,饮水及食物污染会引起学校暴发疫情。建议属地卫生行政部门对高−高聚集区开展菌痢的高发原因调查,在夏秋季加强防控;此外应加强学校饮用水和食品安全的监管,避免发生聚集性疫情。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To understand the epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery in Tibet autonomous region from 2019 to 2024, identify high-risk areas for the transmission of bacillary dysentery, and provide scientific basis for targeted prevention and control efforts.
    Methods The monthly incidence data of bacillary dysentery and reports of public health emergencies in Tibet from 2019 to 2024 were collected from China Disease Prevention and Control Information System and National Public Health Emergency Reporting Information System for a descriptive epidemiological analysis. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the incidence trend. Spatial autocorrelation and spatiotemporal scanning statistics were used to understand the spatiotemporal distribution of the cases.
    Results From 2019 to 2024, a total of 3 896 cases of bacillary dysentery were reported in Tibet without death. The annual average incidence rate was 18.08/100 000. The overall incidence of bacillary dysentery showed a consistent downward trend over years (χ2 trend=699.461, P<0.001). (APC=−22.10%, AAPC=−22.10%, 95%CI: −37.09% to −9.70%, P<0.05). The incidence exhibited distinct seasonal patterns. The annual incidence was high during June - September and peaked in July, with the reported cases accounting for 50.51% (1 968/3 896)of the total. The top three districts and counties with the high average annual reported incidence rates were Qushui County in Lhasa (85.29/100 000), Gongga County (71.74/100 000), and Gangba County in Shigatse (64.98 /100 000). The male to female ratio of the cases was 0.89∶1, the incidence rate was highest in age group <5 years (506.64/100 000). The Moran’s I values for spatial autocorrelation across the years for bacillary dysentery were all positive (all P<0.05). The “high-high” clustering pattern was mainly distributed in the gore area comprising Gongga, Linzhou and Zhanang counties, with Chengguan District at its core. Spatiotemporal analysis showed that the clustering mainly occurred between May and November, with the RR values ranging from 1.64 to 3.63. A total of 4 school outbreaks were reported in the region, three of which were related to drinking water and one to food contamination.
    Conclusion In Tibet, the incidence of bacillary dysentery showed a single-peak pattern, mainly occurring between June and September. Home cared children under 5 years old were the population at high-risk. The disease exhibited spatial clustering, and contamination of drinking water and food led to the outbreaks in schools. It is suggested to conduct investigations into the causes of high incidence in high-high clustering areas and strengthen prevention and control in summer and autumn . In addition, improve the supervision of drinking water and food safety in schools to prevent local outbreaks.

     

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