2026年1月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in January 2026

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2026年1月境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2026年1月监测到18种传染病在全球39个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。对我国的输入风险方面,中风险事件13个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件2个,中风险事件27个。
    结论 建议一般关注尼日利亚的白喉疫情,美国的百日咳疫情,孟加拉国和斯里兰卡的登革热疫情,玻利维亚、哥斯达黎加和美国的基孔肯雅热疫情,俄罗斯的流行性出血热疫情,哈萨克斯坦和尼泊尔的麻疹疫情,印度的尼帕病毒病疫情,印度尼西亚的中东呼吸综合征疫情和加纳的马尔堡出血热疫情可能带来的输入风险。海外旅行风险方面,建议出国(境)旅行者重点关注刚果民主共和国和哈萨克斯坦的麻疹疫情。相较2025年12月,2026年1月还需一般关注南非的白喉疫情,东帝汶、秘鲁和萨尔瓦多的登革热疫情,阿根廷的汉坦病毒肺综合征疫情,马达加斯加的猴痘疫情,刚果民主共和国、纳米比亚、南苏丹和尼日利亚的霍乱疫情,玻利维亚的基孔肯雅热疫情,墨西哥、南非、尼泊尔和危地马拉的麻疹疫情,马达加斯加的鼠疫疫情可能带来的感染风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in January 2026 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In January 2026, 18 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 39 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 13 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 2 high-risk events and 27 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion It is recommended to maintain general attention to the potential import risks posed by diphtheria in Nigeria, pertussis in the United States, dengue fever in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, chikungunya fever in Bolivia, Costa Rica, and the United States, hemorrhagic fever in Russia, measles in Kazakhstan and Nepal, Nipah virus disease in India, Middle East respiratory syndrome in Indonesia and Marburg hemorrhagic fever in Ghana. Regarding overseas travel risks, it is advised that travelers pay close attention to measles in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Kazakhstan. Compared to December 2025, in January 2026, general attention should also be paid to the potential infection risks posed by diphtheria in South Africa; dengue fever in Timor-Leste, Peru, and El Salvador; hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in Argentina; mpox in Madagascar; cholera in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Namibia, South Sudan, and Nigeria; chikungunya fever in Bolivia; measles in Mexico, South Africa, Nepal, and Guatemala; and plague in Madagascar.

     

/

返回文章
返回