2026年2月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, February 2026

  • 摘要:
    目的 评估2026年2月在我国(不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
    方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请各省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。
    结果  流行性感冒(流感)活动下降至中低流行水平,流行毒株仍以A(H3N2)亚型为主,但B(Victoria)系流感病毒构成比逐渐上升。当前我国急性呼吸道传染病仍处于流行季节,总体呈下降趋势。2月仍是诺如病毒胃肠炎疫情高发期,寒假期间预计小幅下降,家庭和餐饮机构等人群聚集场所是高发场所,学校开学后可能出现上升趋势。我国猴痘Ⅱb亚分支疫情仍然保持低水平,猴痘Ⅰb亚分支疫情持续存在输入及续发传播风险,人感染新亚型流感散发病例仍将时有发生。2月为我国非职业性一氧化碳中毒高发期。春节归国返乡人员导致境外传染病输入风险上升。
    结论 对流感、急性呼吸道传染病、诺如病毒胃肠炎、猴痘、人感染新亚型流感及非职业性一氧化碳中毒等予以关注。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan region, the same below) in February 2026.
    Methods  Based on the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and surveillance results of key infectious diseases or notifications from relative agencies and departments, the expert consultation conference was hold and experts from provincial (autonomous region and municipal) centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.
    Results  Influenza activity has decreased to moderate-to-low epidemic levels. The prevalent strains are still dominated by the A(H3N2) subtype. However, the proportion of influenza B(Victoria) viruses is gradually rising. Currently, acute respiratory infectious diseases in China are still in the epidemic season, with an overall downward trend. February remains a high-incidence period for norovirus gastroenteritis outbreaks, with a slight decline expected during the winter vacation. Crowded places such as homes and catering establishments are high-risk locations. A possible upward trend may occur as schools reopen. The epidemic of mpox IIb sublineage in China remains at a low level, while mpox Ib sublineage continues to pose a risk of importation and secondary transmission. Sporadic cases of human infection with novel influenza subtypes will continue to occur. February is a high-incidence period for non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning in China. Returning overseas Chinese during the Spring Festival holiday has led to an increased risk of imported infectious diseases from abroad.
    Conclusion  Attention should be paid to influenza, acute respiratory infectious diseases, norovirus enteritis, mpox, human infection with novel influenza subtypes and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning.

     

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