基于地理信息系统与分子溯源的非传统流行区登革热疫情小尺度传播模式研究—以2025年重庆市荣昌区一起疫情为例

A study of small-scale local transmission of dengue fever in an area without previous epidemic based on geographic information system and molecular tracing: a case study of an outbreak in Rongchang district, Chongqing, 2025

  • 摘要:
    目的 从小地理尺度视角系统解析重庆市荣昌区2025年登革热本地暴发疫情的时空分布特征、驱动因素,以及病毒遗传进化来源,为非传统流行区登革热疫情的传播溯源与精准防控提供科学依据。
    方法 收集2025年7—10月荣昌区登革热本地暴发疫情的实验室确诊病例资料,基于地理信息系统(GIS)开展核密度估计与疫情重心迁移分析;结合滞后14 d的气象指标评估其与发病的相关性;根据疫情时间进程分布进行抽样,选取16例病例的血清样本开展登革病毒(DENV)全基因组测序,进行系统发育分析。
    结果 共报告病例274例,经血清型鉴定均为DENV血清型1型(DENV-1),疫情呈“双峰型”时间分布;核密度估计结果显示疫情以老城区为持续传播核心,逐步向新城区扩散;疫情重心整体向东北迁移;每日发病数与日平均湿度及是否降雨呈显著正相关,而与日平均温度呈显著负相关;系统发育分析结果显示16株病毒均属基因1型,序列间具有较高同源性。
    结论 基于GIS与分子溯源联合分析,本研究揭示了重庆市荣昌区2025年登革热疫情可能由共同来源或有限次数输入事件引发,其传播模式受城市功能分区异质性与气象因素的双重驱动而持续扩散,可为类似非传统流行区登革热疫情预警与防控提供参考。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To systematically characterize the spatiotemporal distribution, risk factors, and viral genetic characteristics and origin of a local dengue outbreak with limited size in Rongchang district, Chongqing municipality, in 2025, and provide evidence for the transmission tracing and precision control of dengue fever in areas without previous dengue fever epidemic.
    Methods The clinical data of laboratory-confirmed dengue fever cases in the local outbreak in Rongchang during July - October 2025 were collected. Kernel density estimation and epidemic centroid migration analyses were performed by using the geographic information system (GIS). The correlations between daily case count and meteorological variables with a 14-day lag were analyzed. Based on the temporal distribution of the outbreak, 16 serum samples were selected from the cases for whole-genome sequencing of dengue virus, followed by phylogenetic analysis.
    Results A total of 274 dengue fever cases were reported in the outbreak in Rongchang, all the cases were caused bys dengue virus 1 (DENV-1). The incidence curve showed a bimodal incidence peaks. Kernel density analysis indicated that the outbreak usually occurred in the old urban area, gradually spreading to the new urban area, and the epidemic centroid exhibited an overall northeastward shift. Daily case count was positively correlated with lagged daily mean relative humidity and rainfall, but negatively correlated with daily mean temperature. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that all the 16 strains of DENV-1 belonged to genotype I and shared high sequence homology.
    Conclusion Based on the GIS and molecular tracing, this study revealed that the dengue fever outbreak in Rongchang in 2025 might be caused by the viruses from other areas or with same source. Subsequent spread was associated with the combined effects of urban area heterogeneity and meteorological factors. These findings can be used as reference for the early warning and control of dengue fever outbreaks in areas without previous dengue fever epidemic.

     

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