核心超大城市输入性新发突发传染病本地风险评估与传播扩散应对关键技术工具包构建思路

Development framework of key technical toolkit for risk assessment and prevention of local transmission of imported emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in core megacities

  • 摘要: 新发突发传染病已成为全球主要公共卫生威胁,我国核心超大城市作为交通枢纽与人员流动核心节点,境外输入及本地传播扩散风险显著高于其他城市,且缺乏针对性系统技术支撑工具。本研究结合国际相关工具包建设经验与我国传染病防控实际,提出核心超大城市输入性新发突发传染病本地风险评估与传播扩散应对关键技术工具包的构建思路。工具包以“监测-评估-处置-宣教”全流程防控为主线,以人工智能技术为驱动,以专业化基础知识库为底座,构建“1个基础模块+3个功能模块”的整体架构,其中基础模块为传染病基础知识库,提供权威知识支撑;3个功能模块分别为境内外输入传染病监测识别模块、输入及传播扩散危害风险评估模块、响应处置应对模块。工具包以数字化平台为核心载体,支持多终端访问与跨系统数据对接,并通过回顾性案例验证与多方问卷调查相结合的方式进行评估。本研究可为工具包开发提供参考,助力提升风险识别科学性与处置规范性,减轻基层防控负担,为核心超大城市及全国各类城市提供技术方案。

     

    Abstract: Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases have become major global public health concern. Due to busy transportation and increased population movement, the core megacities in China have higher risks of international importationand subsequent local transmission of the diseases, but tailored technical support tool systems are limited. Based on the analyses on the international toolkit development and current status of infectious disease prevention and control in China, a development framework for a key technical toolkit for the risk assessment and prevention of local transmission of importedemerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in core megacities is suggested. With the full-chain prevention and control process of "surveillance-assessment-response-public health education" as the main thread, the toolkit is driven by artificial intelligence technology and underpinned by a specialized basic knowledge base, adopting an overall architecture of "1 basic module + 3 functional modules". The basic module is the infectious disease basic knowledge base, which provides authoritative knowledge support. The three functional modules are for domestic and international imported infectious disease surveillance and identification, the risk assessment of importation and local transmission, and local transmission response. The toolkit takes digital platform as core carrier, supports multi-terminal access and cross-system data integration, and the evaluation of the toolkit was based on a combined approach of retrospective case validation and multi-stakeholder questionnaire survey. This study can provide a reference for toolkit development, improve risk identification and transmission response, reduce the workload of frontline prevention and control forces, and the development of technical solutions for core megacities and other cities in China.

     

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