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2015－2024年广东省清远市其他感染性腹泻病流行病学特征、变化趋势分析及发病预测

Epidemiological characteristics, incidence trend and retrospective incidence prediction of other infectious diarrheal diseases in Qingyuan, Guangdong, 2015−2024

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2015－2024年广东省清远市其他感染性腹泻病的流行病学特征，为防控提供依据。
    方法 通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2015－2025年清远市其他感染性腹泻病的监测数据。描述其三间分布特征；采用Joinpoint回归模型分析2015－2024年度发病率的长期趋势；基于2015－2024年月发病率构建SARIMA模型，回顾性预测2025年月发病率，并与实际值比较。
    结果 2015－2024年清远市累计报告其他感染性腹泻病98 529例，年均发病率251.91/10万。人群分布以散居儿童为主（45.71%），年龄以5岁以下儿童居多（51.79%），发病高峰为冬春季（11月－次年3月）。Joinpoint回归分析显示，总体发病率以2018年为转折点，2015－2018年快速上升（APC=26.75%，P=0.036），2018年后进入平台期（APC=−0.18%，P>0.05）；月发病率以6月为转折点（APC1−6月=−12.31%，P=0.046；APC6−12月=2.00%，P=0.460）；4～岁组（AAPC=14.64%，P=0.008）和5～岁组儿童（AAPC=15.26%，P<0.001）的发病率呈显著上升趋势。SARIMA（1,1,2）（1,0,2）12模型残差为白噪声（P=0.771），对2025年回顾性预测与实际值高度相关（r=0.85），预测区间覆盖率为83.33%，对1－2月发病率存在低估，整体MAPE为25.28%。
    结论 2015－2024年清远市其他感染性腹泻病发病率总体呈上升趋势，4～岁和5～岁组儿童发病率持续显著上升；5岁以下儿童是重点防控人群；冬春季为重点关注季节。SARIMA模型对发病趋势预测良好，可作为短期预测工具，但对1－2月发病率存在低估，需结合实时监测进行校正。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of other infectious diarrheal diseases in Qingyuan, Guangdong province, from 2015 to 2024 and provide evidence for prevention and control of other infectious diarrheal diseases.
    Methods The incidence data of other infectious diarrheal diseases in Qingyuan from 2015 to 2025 were collected from China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The temporal, area, and population distributions of the diseases were described. Joinpoint regression model was applied to analyze the long-term trend of annual incidence rates during 2015−2024, and a SARIMA model was constructed by using monthly incidence data from 2015 to 2024 for the retrospective prediction the monthly incidence rates for 2025, and the predicated incidence was compared with the actual incidence.
    Results From 2015 to 2024, a total of 98,529 cases of other infectious diarrheal diseases were reported in Qingyuan, with an average annual incidence rate of 251.91 per 100,000. Most cases were home-cared children (45.71%) and children aged <5 years (51.79%). The incidence peak occurred during winter-spring (from November to March). Joinpoint regression analysis indicated a change of the incidence in 2018: which increased rapidly from 2015 to 2018 (APC=26.75%, P=0.036), than remained stable (APC=−0.18%, P>0.05). The monthly incidence began to change in June (APC January–June=−12.31%, P=0.046; APC June–December=2.00%, P=0.460). Significant upward trends of the incidence were observed in children aged 4 years (AAPC=14.64%, P=0.008) and 5 years (AAPC=15.26%, P<0.001). The SARIMA(1,1,2)(1,0,2)12 model residuals were white noise (P=0.771). The retrospective prediction of the incidence for 2025 correlated well with actual incidence (r=0.85), with a prediction interval coverage of 83.33% and underestimated incidence during January-February (overall MAPE=25.28%).
    Conclusions The incidence of other infectious diarrheal diseases in Qingyuan showed an overall upward trend from 2015 to 2024. A sustained and significant increase was observed in children aged 4−5 years. Children under 5 years old are the key population for the prevention and control of other infectious diarrheal diseases. Winter and spring are the seasons with high incidence. The SARIMA model showed good prediction performance and can be used as a short-term early warning tool despite the underestimated rates during January–February and needed calibration with real-time surveillance data.

     

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