2026年2月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in February 2026

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2026年2月境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2026年2月监测到14种传染病在全球54个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。对我国的输入风险方面,中风险事件5个;海外旅行风险方面,无高风险事件,中风险事件37个。
    结论 建议一般关注越南和菲律宾的登革热疫情,马来西亚和美国的基孔肯雅热疫情,孟加拉国的尼帕病毒病疫情。海外旅行风险方面,相较2026年1月,2026年2月建议出国(境)旅行者还需一般关注巴拿马、菲律宾、哥伦比亚、墨西哥等国的登革热疫情,津巴布韦和马拉维的霍乱疫情,南美洲多国的基孔肯雅热疫情,巴基斯坦和蒙古的麻疹疫情,乌干达的克里米亚刚果出血热疫情,孟加拉国尼帕病毒病疫情,巴西美洲锥虫病和寨卡疫情可能带来的感染风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in February 2026 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In February 2026, 14 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 54 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 5 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are no high-risk events and 37 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion It is recommended to maintain general attention to the potential import risks posed by by dengue fever in Vietnam and the Philippines, chikungunya fever in Malaysia and the United States, and Nipah virus disease in Bangladesh. Regarding overseas travel risks, compared to January 2026, in February 2026, travelers are also advised to pay general attention to the potential infection risks posed by dengue fever in countries such as Panama, the Philippines, Colombia, and Mexico; cholera in Zimbabwe and Malawi; chikungunya fever in multiple South American countries; measles in Pakistan and Mongolia; Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in Uganda; Nipah virus disease in Bangladesh; and American trypanosomiasis and Zika in Brazil.

     

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