核心超大城市新发突发传染病防控挑战与工具包构建思考

Toolkit development to address challenges in prevention and control of emerging infectious diseases in core megacities

  • 摘要: 核心超大城市因其独特的人口基数大、密度高、国内国际人口和物资流动频繁、社会结构与空间环境复杂等特征,已成为新发突发传染病疫情防控的关键节点与前沿阵地。特别是境外输入性疫情、呼吸道传染病以及虫媒传染病疫情防控难度较大,疫情往往呈现传播隐匿、多点暴发、溯源困难等特点,疫情早发现、流调追踪、隔离管控、资源保障等环节面临严峻挑战。而现有传染病防控体系目前存在监测碎片化、风险评估静态化、预警依赖经验及资源错配等短板。为提升“早发现、早预警、早处置”能力,亟须针对核心超大城市的特点和防控需求构建以“数据-模型-决策”为核心的智能防控关键技术工具包。该工具包应遵循科学性与系统性、数据驱动与智能化、用户友好与情景性、平战结合与动态迭代等设计原则,具备基础支撑层、多源感知层、智能研判与预警层、决策协同层等架构,旨在通过技术集成推动防控模式从被动响应向主动预警与干预转型,为核心超大城市增强公共卫生韧性提供系统性技术解决方案。

     

    Abstract: Core megacities, characterized by large population base, high population density, frequent domestic and international population and material movement, as well as complex social structures and spatial environments, have become the key areas in the prevention and control of emerging infectious disease (EIDs), especially the prevention and control of imported infectious disease, respiratory infectious disease, and vector-borne infectious disease. The epidemics often exhibit characteristics of concealed transmission, multi-point outbreaks, and difficult source tracing, posing serious challenge to early detection, epidemiological investigation and tracking, quarantine and control, and resource allocation. The existing infectious disease prevention and control system has shortcomings of fragmented surveillance, static risk assessment, reliance on empirical early warning, and mis-resource allocation. For the purpose of “early detection, early warning, and early intervention,” there is an urgent need to construct a key technical toolkit for the intelligent prevention and control of EIDs characterized by “data-model-decision” structure for core megacities.The design of the toolkit should follow the principles of scientificity and systematicity, data-driven and intellectualization, user and scenario-friendliness, integrated peacetime and wartime use, and dynamic iteration. The toolkit should comprise foundational support layer, multi-source sensing layer, intelligent analysis and early warning layer, and decision-making coordination layer to facilitate the prevention and control from passive response to proactive warning and intervention through technology integration, and provide a systematic technological solution to improve public health resilience in core megacities.

     

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