2026年3月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, March 2026

  • 摘要:
    目的 评估2026年3月在我国(不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
    方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请各省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。
    结果  当前我国急性呼吸道传染病总体呈下降趋势,但部分病原体活动仍处于一定水平波动。流行性感冒(流感)处于低流行水平,流行毒株仍以A(H3N2)亚型为主,B(Victoria)系流感病毒构成比逐渐上升。随着3月份开学,诺如病毒胃肠炎疫情可能出现小幅上升。预计近期全国麻疹疫情整体呈低水平波动,局部免疫薄弱地区和人群可能报告病例增多。我国猴痘Ⅱb亚分支疫情仍然保持低水平,猴痘Ⅰ分支疫情持续存在输入及续发传播风险。人感染新亚型流感散发病例仍将时有发生。寨卡病毒病输入风险持续存在。
    结论 对流感、急性呼吸道传染病、诺如病毒胃肠炎、猴痘、人感染新亚型流感、麻疹和寨卡病毒病等予以关注。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan region, the same below) in March 2026.
    Methods  Based on the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and surveillance results of key infectious diseases or notifications from relative agencies and departments, the expert consultation conference was hold and experts from provincial (autonomous region and municipal) centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.
    Results  Currently, the overall incidence of acute respiratory infectious diseases in China is on a downward trend, but the activity of some pathogens still fluctuates within a certain range. Influenza is at a low epidemic levels, with influenza A(H3N2) remaining the predominant circulating strain, and the proportion of influenza B(Victoria) viruses gradually increasing. With the start of the new semester in March, a slight increase in norovirus gastroenteritis outbreaks may occur. The epidemic of mpox IIb sublineage in China remains at a low level, while mpox clade I continue to pose risk of imported and secondary transmission. Sporadic cases of human infection with novel influenza subtypes will continue to occur. The risk of imported Zika virus disease persists.
    Conclusion  Attention should be paid to influenza, acute respiratory infectious diseases, norovirus gastroenteritis, mpox, human infection with novel influenza subtypes, measles, and Zika virus disease.

     

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