2016-2024年上海市杨浦区居民预期寿命和死因变化情况研究

Study of changes of life expectancy and cause of death of residents in Yangpu district, Shanghai, 2016–2024

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析上海市杨浦区2016-2024年预期寿命的变化情况及不同年龄和死因对预期寿命变化的影响,为辖区内疾病的精准防控提供科学依据。
    方法 基于杨浦区户籍居民死因监测及人口数据,采用简略现时寿命表计算年度预期寿命,应用Arriaga’s分解法分解年龄和死因的贡献。
    结果 2016-2024年,杨浦区户籍居民预期寿命由83.38岁升至85.48岁,增幅2.10岁,各年度女性预期寿命均高于男性;各年龄组对预期寿命均呈正向贡献,其中65~<85岁贡献率最高,占42.67%,其后依次为≥85岁(25.05%)和45~<65岁(14.01%);死因分解显示,正向贡献前三位的死因为肿瘤(贡献率40.15%,贡献值0.84岁)、循环系统疾病(贡献率27.00%,贡献值0.57岁)和呼吸系统疾病(贡献率18.36%,贡献值0.39岁);负向贡献主要来自内分泌、营养和代谢疾病(贡献率−13.11%,贡献值−0.28岁)及泌尿生殖系统疾病(贡献率−1.28%,贡献值−0.03岁)。
    结论 杨浦区居民预期寿命的提升主要得益于老年人群死亡率下降及肿瘤、循环系统疾病的防控成效,但营养与代谢疾病的负面影响上升。不同年龄、性别呈现差异化的风险模式,需进一步开展针对性干预。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the change in life expectancy of residents in Yangpu district, Shanghai, from 2016 to 2024, quantify the contributions of age and cause of death to these changes and provide scientific evidence for precise disease prevention and control in the district.
    Methods Based on cause-of-death surveillance and demographic data of registered residents in Yangpu, the annual life expectancy was calculated by using abridged life table. Arriaga decomposition method was used to quantify the contributions of age and cause of death to the change in life expectancy.
    Results From 2016 to 2024, the life expectancy at birth for registered residents in Yangpu increased from 83.38 years to 85.48 years, an increase of 2.10 years. The life expectancy of women was consistently higher than that of men during the study period. All the age groups made positive contributions to the life expectancy. The age group 65−<85 years had highest contribution (42.67%), followed by age groups ≥85 years (25.05%) and 45−<65 years (14.01%). The cause-of-death decomposition showed that the three leading causes with positive contributions were neoplasm (contribution rate:40.15%; contribution value: 0.84 years), circulatory system disease (contribution rate:27.00%; contribution value: 0.57 years), and respiratory system disease (contribution rate:18.36%; contribution value:0.39 years). The negative contributions were mainly from endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases (contribution rate: −13.11%; contribution value: −0.28 years) and genitourinary system disease (contribution rate: −1.28%; contribution value: −0.03 years).
    Conclusion The increase of life expectancy of residents in Yangpu was mainly driven by declined mortality in the elderly population and the effective prevention and control of neoplasm and circulatory system disease. However, the negative impact of nutritional and metabolic diseases increased. Distinct risk patterns were observed across age and sex groups, underscoring the need for further targeted interventions.

     

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