2026年3月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in March 2026

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2026年3月境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2026年3月监测到13种传染病在全球58个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。对我国的输入风险方面,中风险事件22个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件9个,中风险事件33个。
    结论 建议一般关注尼泊尔、英国、孟加拉国、蒙古、澳大利亚、墨西哥、美国、日本、加拿大、哈萨克斯坦、危地马拉的麻疹疫情,中国台湾地区、越南、孟加拉国、墨西哥的登革热疫情,英国和泰国的流行性脑脊髓膜炎疫情,莫桑比克与刚果民主共和国的霍乱疫情,中国台湾地区的发热伴血小板减少综合征(SFTS)疫情,澳大利亚的白喉疫情。海外旅行风险方面,相较2026年2月,2026年3月建议出国(境)旅行者还需重点关注刚果民主共和国、俄罗斯、尼泊尔、孟加拉国、蒙古、墨西哥、哈萨克斯坦和危地马拉的麻疹疫情;还需一般关注马里、苏丹、智利、玻利维亚、新西兰和洪都拉斯等国的登革热疫情,哥斯达黎加、英国、保加利亚、拉脱维亚、美国、日本、加拿大等国的麻疹疫情,苏里南和阿根廷的基孔肯雅热疫情,英国和泰国的流行性脑脊髓膜炎疫情,巴西、科特迪瓦、玻利维亚、秘鲁和委内瑞拉等国的黄热病疫情,尼日利亚的拉沙热疫情,南非的白喉疫情可能带来的感染风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in March 2026 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In March 2026, 13 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 58 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 22 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 9 high-risk events and 33 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion It is recommended to maintain general attention to the potential import risks posed by measles in Nepal, the United Kingdom, Bangladesh, Mongolia, Australia, Mexico, the United States, Japan, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Guatemala, dengue fever in Taiwan region of China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Mexico, meningococcal meningitis in the United Kingdom and Thailand, cholera in Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Taiwan region of China, and diphtheria in Australia. Regarding overseas travel risks, compared to February 2026, in March 2026, it is advised that travelers pay close attention to measles in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Russia, Nepal, Bangladesh, Mongolia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, and Guatemala. General attention should also be paid to the potential infection risks posed by dengue fever in Mali, Sudan, Chile, Bolivia, New Zealand, and Honduras, measles in Costa Rica, the United Kingdom, Bulgaria, Latvia, the United States, Japan, and Canada, chikungunya fever in Suriname and Argentina, meningococcal meningitis in the United Kingdom and Thailand, yellow fever in Brazil, Cote d'Ivoire, Bolivia, Peru, and Venezuela, Lassa fever in Nigeria, and diphtheria in South Africa.

     

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