2020-2024年安徽省宿州市气象因素与其他感染性腹泻的关联性研究

Association between meteorological factors and other infectious diarrhea in Suzhou, Anhui, 2020−2024

  • 摘要:
    目的 探究日均气温、日均相对湿度与安徽省宿州市其他感染性腹泻发病的关联及滞后效应,识别高危人群,为本地区制定精准防控策略提供依据。
    方法 收集2020-2024年宿州市其他感染性腹泻日发病个案数据及同期气象数据,采用Spearman秩相关筛选气象因素,运用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)量化日均气温和日均相对湿度与其他感染性腹泻发病的关联。
    结果 2020-2024年宿州市共报告本地病例38 473例,男女性别比为1.05∶1,14~60岁人群占比最高(50.67%)。DLNM结果显示,以日均气温中位数16.90℃为参考,−8.00℃~2.00℃和22.00℃~32.00℃为累积滞后21d其他感染性腹泻发病的危险因素,−8.00℃时累积发病风险最大(RR=2.71,95%CI:1.47~4.98);低温对<14岁人群的累积发病风险最大(RR=1.97,95%CI:1.07~3.63);高温对14~60岁人群发病风险存在即时效应,累积滞后21d发病风险最大(RR=1.96,95%CI:1.47~2.61)。以日均相对湿度中位数70.93%为参考,39.00%~70.00%为累积滞后21d其他感染性腹泻发病的危险区间,51.00%时累积发病风险最大(RR=1.34,95%CI:1.20~1.51);72.00%~84.00%时,具有保护作用,81.00%时累积保护效应最佳(RR=0.88,95%CI:0.82~0.95);低湿环境下<14岁人群累积发病风险最高(RR=1.50,95%CI:1.15~1.96);高湿对全人群其他感染性腹泻发病的影响无统计学意义(P<0.05)。
    结论 日均气温和日均相对湿度对宿州市其他感染性腹泻的发病风险存在显著的滞后关联效应,低温、高温及低湿环境可提升特定人群的发病风险。建议结合不同温、湿度区间制定差异化的防控策略,降低人群发病风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To investigate the association of daily mean temperature and daily mean relative humidity with the incidence of other infectious diarrhea and their lag effects in Suzhou , Anhui province, identify the populations at high-risk, and provide evidence for the development of precise prevention and control strategies.
    Methods  The daily incidence data of other infectious diarrhea and concurrent meteorological data in Suzhou from 2020 to 2024 were collected. Spearman rank correlation analysis was used to select appropriate meteorological factors. Distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to quantify the association of daily mean temperature and daily mean relative humidity with the incidence of other infectious diarrhea.
    Results A total of 38 473 cases of other infectious diarrhea were reported in Suzhou from 2020 to 2024, the male to female ratio of the cases was 1.05∶1. The highest proportion of the cases (50.67%) was observed in people aged 14−60 years. DLNM results showed that, using the median daily mean temperature of 16.90°C as reference, temperature ranges of −8.00°C to 2.00°C and 22.00°C to 32.00°C were associated with the increased risk. The cumulative risk was highest at −8.00°C (RR=2.71, 95%CI: 1.47−4.98). Low temperature posed the highest cumulative risk for the population under 14 years old (RR=1.97, 95%CI: 1.07−3.63). High temperature had an immediate effect on the risk for people aged 14−60 years, and the cumulative risk over a 21-day lag was also highest in this age group (RR=1.96, 95%CI: 1.47−2.61). Using the median daily mean relative humidity of 70.93% as reference, a relative humidity range of 39.00%−70.00% was a risk factor for other infectious diarrhea over a 21-day cumulative lag, with the highest risk at 51.00% (RR=1.34, 95%CI: 1.20−1.51). A range of 72.00%–84.00% showed a protective effect, with the best protective effect at 81.00% (RR=0.88, 95%CI: 0.82−0.95). Low humidity posed the highest cumulative risk for the population under 14 years old (RR=1.50, 95%CI: 1.15−1.96). The effect of high humidity on the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in the whole population was not significant.
    Conclusions Daily mean temperature and daily mean relative humidity have significant lagged effects on the risk for other infectious diarrhea in Suzhou. Low temperature, high temperature, and low humidity increase the morbidity risk in specific populations. It is suggested to develop differentiated prevention and control strategies for other infectious diarrhea for different temperature and humidity ranges to reduce the risk of disease.

     

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