2026年4月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, April 2026

  • 摘要:
    目的 评估2026年4月在我国(不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
    方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请各省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。
    结果 2026年4月诺如病毒胃肠炎疫情可能出现逐渐下降趋势。 发热伴血小板减少综合征发病水平进入上升期,全国报告病例数将较3月明显增多;病例以散发为主,存在发生人–人传播聚集性疫情的可能性。 清明假期后登革热和基孔肯雅热跨境传播风险进一步增高,Ⅰ类省份存在本地传播风险,局部地区存在聚集性疫情风险。 我国人感染新亚型流感疫情整体风险未发生改变,暴露人群可能出现散发病例,普通人感染风险低。我国猴痘Ⅱb亚分支病毒仍在男男性行为人群中保持低水平传播态势,猴痘Ⅰ分支病毒持续存在输入及续发传播风险。 寨卡病毒病输入我国的风险持续存在。 此外,基于全球公开来源信息,还需关注境外流行性脑脊髓膜炎、麻疹等疫情输入风险。
    结论 对诺如病毒胃肠炎、发热伴血小板减少综合征、登革热、基孔肯雅热、人感染新亚型流感、猴痘、寨卡病毒病等予以关注。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan region, the same below) in April 2026.
    Methods  Based on the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and surveillance results of key infectious diseases or notifications from relative agencies and departments, the expert consultation conference was hold and experts from provincial (autonomous region and municipal) centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.
    Results  A gradual declining trend is expected in the epidemic of norovirus gastroenteritis in April 2026. The incidence of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) will enter an upward phase, and the number of reported cases nationwide will increase significantly compared with March. Cases will be predominantly sporadic, with the potential for clustered outbreaks via human-to-human transmission. Following the Qingming Festival holiday, the risk of cross-border transmission of dengue fever and chikungunya fever will further increase. Class I regions are at risk of local transmission, and some regions face the risk of clustered outbreaks. The overall risk of human infection with novel influenza subtypes in China remains unchanged. Sporadic cases may occur among exposed populations, while the general population faces a low risk of infection. The epidemic of mpox IIb sublineage in China remains at a low level among men who have sex with men, while mpox clade I sublineage continues to pose risk of imported and secondary transmission. The risk of imported Zika virus disease persists. In addition, based on publicly available global information, attention should also be paid to the risk of imported outbreaks of overseas epidemic diseases such as meningococcal meningitis and measles.
    Conclusion  Attention should be paid to norovirus enteritis, SFTS, dengue fever, chikungunya fever, human infection with novel influenza subtypes, mpox, Zika virus disease.

     

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