2023-2025年浙江省台州市流感动态监测结果及趋势分析

Dynamic surveillance for influenza in Taizhou, Zhejiang, 2023 - 2025

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2023-2025年浙江省台州市流感样病例(ILI)的流行病学特征及病原学监测结果,为流感防控提供科学依据。
    方法 收集2023-2025年台州市ILI监测数据及病原学检测结果,对流感样病例百分比(ILI%)的时间分布、年龄分布及病原学特征进行描述性分析,采用χ2检验比较组间差异,运用Spearman秩相关分析评估ILI%与流感病毒阳性率的相关性。
    结果 2023-2025年台州市ILI%分别为5.77%、5.05%和5.23%,差异有统计学意义(χ2=948.614,P<0.001)。不同流行季呈现的ILI%高峰特征存在差异,2022-2023年流行季ILI%峰值最高(21.96%),主要由新冠病毒驱动(峰值周新冠病毒阳性占82.82%);2023-2026年各流行季新冠病毒贡献有限,ILI%波动主要源于流感病毒优势亚型的年度轮替。各流行季均呈现典型的冬春季流行特征,2022-2023年流行季峰值最高。年龄分布显示,5~14岁年龄组报告病例最多(83 058例,占31.46%),各年龄组构成差异有统计学意义(χ2=1 607.512,P<0.001)。病原学监测显示,总体阳性率为37.65%,其中流感病毒阳性占27.48%,新冠病毒阳性占10.17%。ILI%与流感病毒阳性率的时间变化趋势基本保持一致,二者流行高峰基本重合(如2023年第13周、2023-2024年冬春季及2025年第48-52周),提示ILI%主要反映流感病毒的流行强度。2023-2025年台州市ILI%与流感病毒检测阳性率均呈正相关(均P<0.05),相关系数分别为0.67、0.47和0.42。新冠病毒与ILI%相关性在不同年份存在差异。
    结论 2023-2025年台州市ILI%波动明显,5~14岁儿童是流感防控的重点人群,流感病毒对ILI%影响显著,应持续加强流感监测及多病原检测工作。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To understand the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of influenza-like illness (ILI) in Taizhou, Zhejiang province, from 2023 to 2025, and provide scientific evidence for influenza prevention and control.
    Methods The surveillance data and etiological testing results of ILI in Taizhou from 2023 to 2025 were collected. Descriptive analysis was conducted on the temporal and age distributions, as well as the etiological characteristics of ILI, χ2 test was used to compare differences between groups, and Spearman rank correlation analysis between ILI% and influenza virus positive rate was conducted.
    Results The ILI% was 5.77%, 5.05%, and 5.23%, respectively, in Taizhou from 2023 to 2025, the differences were significant (χ2=948.614, P<0.001). The incidence peak varied across different influenza seasons. In the 2022–2023 influenza season, the highest ILI% (21.96%) was observed mainly due to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 (responsible for for 82.82% of positive detections in peak week). In the 2023−2026 influenza seasons, the contribution of SARS-CoV-2 was limited, and the fluctuations in ILI% were mainly attributable to the annual alternation of predominant influenza virus subtypes. Each influenza season exhibited typical winter-spring epidemic characteristics, with the highest incidence being observed in the 2022−2023 influenza season. Age distribution analysis showed that the the highest number of ILI cases were reported in age group 5−14 years (83 058 cases, 31.46%), and the differences among age groups were significant (χ2=1607.512, P<0.001). Etiological surveillance revealed an overall positive rate of 37.65%. In the positive detections, influenza virus accounted for 27.48% and SARS-CoV-2 accounted for 10.17%. The ILI% and influenza virus positive rate showed consistent temporal trends, especially in high-incidence period or weeks (the 13rd week in 2023, 2023−2024 influenza season and the 48th-53nd weeks in 2025), indicating that ILI% mainly reflects influenza activity. Significant positive correlations between ILI% and influenza virus detection were observed across 2023−2025 (r=0.67,0.47 and 0.42; all P < 0.05). However, the correlation between SARS-CoV-2 positive rate and ILI% varied by year.
    Conclusions The ILI% fluctuated significantly in Taizhou from 2023 to 2025. Children aged 5−14 years are the key population in influenza prevention and control. The spread of influenza virus has significant impact on ILI%. Continuous strengthening of influenza surveillance and multi-pathogen detection is warranted.

     

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