2006-2025年四川省人间炭疽流行特征及空间聚集性分析

Epidemiological characteristics and spatial clustering of human anthrax in Sichuan, 2006–2025

  • 摘要:
    目的 2006-2025年分析四川省人间炭疽流行特征和时空聚集特征,为优化人间炭疽防控措施工作提供科学依据。
    方法 人间炭疽病例资料来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统的监测报告管理模块,采用描述性流行病学方法分析人间炭疽的三间分布特征,采用Joinpoint回归对人间炭疽年报告发病率进行时间趋势检验,采用全局和局部空间自相关分析人间炭疽的空间分布特征。
    结果 2006-2025年四川省累计报告人间炭疽发病2 503例,年均报告发病率为0.15/10万,报告发病率随时间变化趋势不明显 年度变化百分比(AAPC)=0.293%,95%置信区间(CI):−1.884% ~1.796%,P=0.686。报告病例的临床分型以皮肤炭疽为主(98.92%);发病高峰为7-9月(42.51%);以男性(69.08%)、20~<50岁青壮年(69.32%)、农牧民(91.33%)为主。报告病例分布在四川省6个市(自治州)、36个县(市、区),主要聚集在阿坝藏族羌族自治州(阿坝州)(59.65%)和甘孜藏族自治州(甘孜州)(32.60%)。甘孜州报告发病率呈上升趋势(AAPC=7.83%,95%CI:5.264%~10.450%,P<0.05)。年均报告发病率前5位的县(市、区)依次为若尔盖县(53.30/10万)、红原县(51.79/10万)、阿坝县(14.05/10万)、石渠县(13.19/10万)、色达县(9.48/10万)。全局空间自相关分析结果显示,四川省2006-2025年人间炭疽发病数均存在空间聚集性(均莫兰指数>0.00,Z>1.960,P<0.05)。局部空间自相关分析结果显示,高-高聚集区范围随时间变化不断扩大,从2006-2010年的3个县(市、区)扩散至2021-2025年的10个县(市、区),呈现出由牧区向半农半牧区扩散的趋势。
    结论 2006-2025年四川省人间炭疽发病呈现明显的职业特征,牧民和农民为重点防控人群。疫情主要集中在牧区,并出现向半农半牧区扩散的趋势,应加强此类地区的防控。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of human anthrax in Sichuan Province during 2006−2025 and provide evidence for the improvement of the prevention and control of anthrax.
    Methods The incidence data of human anthrax in Sichuan during this period were collected from surveillance report management module of China Disease Prevention and Control Information System for a descriptive epidemiological analysis on the time, space and population distributions of the cases. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trend of the annual incidence rate of reported human anthrax. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses were conducted to analyze the spatial distributions of human anthrax.
    Results A total of 2503 cases of human anthrax were reported in Sichuan during 2006−2025, with an average annual incidence rate of 0.15/100000. The reported incidence rate in the province showed no significant change over time average annual percentage change (AAPC)=0.293%, 95% confidence interval (CI): −1.884% to 1.796%, P=0.686. The clinical types of reported cases were predominantly cutaneous anthrax (98.92%); the annual incidence peak occurred during July-September (42.51%); and the cases were mainly men (69.08%), young and middle-aged adults aged 20−<50 years (69.32%), and farmers and herdsmen (91.33%). The reported cases were distributed in 36 counties (districts) in 6 prefectures in Sichuan, with the majority being reported in Aba (59.65%) and Garzê prefectures (32.60%). and the incidence rate in Ganzi showed an upward trend (AAPC=7.83%, 95%CI: 5.264% to 10.450%, P<0.05). The top five counties (districts) with high average annual incidence rate were Ruoergai (53.30/100,000), Hongyuan (51.79/100000), Aba (14.05 /100000), Shiqu (13.19/100000), and Seda (9.48/ 100000). The results of global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was spatial clustering in human anthrax cases in Sichuan from 2006 to 2025 (all Moran's I>0.00, Z>1.960, P<0.05). The local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the range of high-high clustering areas expanded continuously over time, from 3 counties (districts) during 2006−2010 to 10 counties (districts) during 2021−2025, showing a spread from pastoral area to semi-agricultural-pastoral area.
    Conclusion The incidence of human anthrax in Sichuan showed obvious occupational characteristics, with herdsmen and farmers being the mostly affected. The human anthrax epidemic mainly occurred in pastoral area, but showed a spread to semi-agricultural-pastoral area. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of human anthrax in such areas.

     

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