2026年4月全球传染病事件风险评估

Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in April 2026

  • 摘要:
    目的 对2026年4月境外发生的全球传染病事件进行监测,并评估对我国的输入风险和海外旅行风险。
    方法 运用多种来源的互联网开源情报信息,对重点关注传染病开展基于事件的监测,并采用风险矩阵法,从传播可能性和后果严重性两个维度,整合疾病、国家和事件特异性指标构建指标体系,对传染病境外输入风险和海外旅行风险开展评估。
    结果 2026年4月监测到17种传染病在全球40个国家形成突发事件或暴发疫情。对我国的输入风险方面,高风险事件1个,中风险事件29个;海外旅行风险方面,高风险事件10个,中风险事件24个。
    结论 输入风险方面,建议重点关注越南登革热疫情,一般关注特定国家的白喉、登革热、基孔肯雅热、流行性脑脊髓膜炎、麻疹、手足口病、寨卡病毒病。海外旅行风险方面,建议重点关注马尔代夫和秘鲁的登革热,刚果民主共和国和莫桑比克的霍乱,法属圭亚那的基孔肯雅热,巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、刚果民主共和国、菲律宾和南非的麻疹疫情。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside China in April 2026 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.
    Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.
    Results In April 2026, 17 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 40 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there is 1 high-risk event and 29 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 1- high-risk events and 24 medium-risk events.
    Conclusion For import risk, it is recommended to pay close attention to the dengue fever outbreak in Vietnam, and pay general attention to diphtheria, dengue fever, chikungunya, meningococcal meningitis, measles, hand, foot and mouth disease, and Zika virus disease in specific countries. For overseas travel risk, it is recommended to pay close attention to dengue fever in Maldives and Peru, cholera in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Mozambique, chikungunya in French Guiana, and measles outbreaks in Pakistan, Bangladesh, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Philippines, and South Africa.

     

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