2026年5月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, May 2026

  • 摘要:
    目的 评估2026年5月在我国(不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
    方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请海关科学技术研究中心(境外输入疫情信息交流)、各省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心等专家参与评估。
    结果 预计2026年5月手足口病疫情呈持续上升趋势。发热伴血小板减少综合征已进入快速上升期,高发地区局部发生聚集性疫情的风险上升。登革热和基孔肯雅热跨境传播风险进一步增高,我国南方已进入蚊媒活跃期,Ⅰ类省份存在本地传播风险,局部地区存在聚集性疫情风险。我国人感染新亚型流感疫情风险整体可控,存在散发疫情的可能。猴痘疫情输入导致本地续发传播风险上升。寨卡病毒病输入我国的风险仍较高。流行性脑脊髓膜炎发病将处于低流行状态。此外,基于全球公开来源信息,还需关注境外埃博拉病毒病、安第斯汉坦病毒感染、拉沙热等疫情输入风险。
    结论 对手足口病、登革热、基孔肯雅热、发热伴血小板减少综合征、人感染新亚型流感、猴痘、寨卡病毒病、流行性脑脊髓膜炎等予以关注。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan region, the same below) in May 2026.
    Methods  Based on the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and surveillance results of key infectious diseases or notifications from relative agencies and departments, the expert consultation conference was hold and experts from Science and Technology Research Center of China Customs (information exchange on imported cases) and provincial (autonomous region and municipal) centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.
    Results  The epidemic of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) will continue to rise in May 2026. The incidence of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) has entered an upward phase, and the risk of localized clusters in high-incidence areas has risen. The risk of cross-border transmission of dengue fever and chikungunya fever will further increase. In southern China, mosquito vectors are now active, with a risk of local transmission in class I regions, and some regions face the risk of clustered outbreaks. The overall risk of human infection with novel influenza subtypes in China is well under control, though sporadic outbreaks are possible. The epidemic of mpox continues to pose risk of imported and secondary transmission. The risk of imported Zika virus disease remains high. The incidence of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis is expected to remain low. In addition, based on publicly available global information, attention should also be paid to the risk of imported outbreaks of overseas epidemic diseases such as Ebola virus disease, Andes hantavirus, and Lassa fever.
    Conclusion  Attention should be paid to HFMD, dengue fever, chikungunya fever, SFTS, human infection with novel influenza subtypes, mpox, Zika virus disease, epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis.

     

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