2026年6月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, June 2026

  • 摘要:
    目的 评估2026年6月在我国(不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
    方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请海关科学技术研究中心(境外输入疫情信息交流)、各省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心等专家参与评估。
    结果 本迪布焦型埃博拉病毒病疫情在刚果(金)风险等级为极高,在乌干达及与刚果(金)接壤的其他国家风险等级为高,在非洲其他地区及全球层面风险等级为低,当前疫情输入我国并续发传播风险等级为低。 我国南方已进入蚊媒活跃期,降雨增多,雨后容易形成蚊媒孳生地,登革热和基孔肯雅热输入导致本地传播风险进一步增高,寨卡病毒病输入及传播风险持续存在。 预计6月手足口病疫情呈持续上升趋势,但重症死亡仍维持较低水平。 发热伴血小板减少综合征6月处于年度发病高峰期,高发地区局部发生聚集性疫情的风险上升。 我国人感染新亚型流感可能发现散发病例,疫情风险低。 我国猴痘疫情仍然保持低水平波动态势,持续存在输入及本地续发传播风险。 预计6月食物中毒、高温中暑事件报告数量会上升。
    结论 对本迪布焦型埃博拉病毒病、登革热、基孔肯雅热、寨卡病毒病、手足口病、发热伴血小板减少综合征、人感染新亚型流感、猴痘、食物中毒、高温中暑等予以关注。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan region, the same below) in June 2026.
    Methods  Based on the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and surveillance results of key infectious diseases or notifications from relative agencies and departments, the expert consultation conference was hold and experts from Science and Technology Research Center of China Customs (information exchange on imported cases) and provincial (autonomous region and municipal) centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.
    Results  The risk level of Bundibugyo Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) is extremely high in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), high in Uganda and other countries bordering the DRC, and low in other parts of Africa and globally. The current risk of importation into China and subsequent local transmission is low. Southern China has entered the active mosquito-borne transmission season. Rainfall has increased, creating favorable breeding conditions for mosquitoes. Consequently, the risk of local transmission resulting from imported cases of dengue fever and chikungunya fever continues to increase. The risk of importation and local transmission of Zika virus disease persists. The hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemic is expected to show a continued upward trend in June, but severe cases and deaths will remain at relatively low levels. Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is in its annual peak incidence period in June, and the risk of clustered outbreaks in high-incidence areas is increasing. Sporadic cases of human infection with novel influenza A virus may be detected in China, but the epidemic risk is low. The mpox outbreak in China maintains a low-level, fluctuating pattern, and the risk of importation and subsequent local transmission persists. The number of reported food poisoning and heat stroke events is expected to rise in June.
    Conclusion  Attention should be paid to EVD,dengue fever, chikungunya fever, Zika virus disease, HFMD, SFTS, human infection with novel influenza subtypes, mpox, food poisoning, heat stroke.

     

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